AHL

Rochester Americans vs Hershey Bears prediction

Rochester Americans3–3–1 · Home Hershey Bears4–2–0 · Away11:05 PM UTCOct 28

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%ROC51%ROC

Rochester Americans to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.98 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Rochester Americans 51% favourites at home against Hershey Bears, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

ROCRochester Americans in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

HERHershey Bears in 60'

40%

Game flow

ROC 3.0 · HER 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.9

P2 · 1.2–1.1

P3 · 1.1–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Rochester Americans51%1.98
Regulation result (60 minutes)Rochester Americans41%2.45
Puck lineHershey Bears +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Rochester Americans

51%fair 1.98

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Rochester Americans

41%fair 2.45

Puck line

Hershey Bears +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Rochester Americans vs Hershey Bears?

Our model makes Rochester Americans 51% favourites at home against Hershey Bears, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Rochester Americans have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Hershey Bears have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Rochester Americans sit 6th in the North Division, while Hershey Bears sit 1st in the Atlantic Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Rochester Americans rate +0.17 and Hershey Bears +0.03 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.14 goals to Rochester Americans. Home ice is worth about -0.10 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Rochester Americans 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Rochester Americans −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.1 projected).

Rochester Americans to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.