KHL

Bars Kazan vs Khabarovsk prediction

Bars Kazan9–8–2 · Home Khabarovsk9–7–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 30

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Our pick

53%KHA53%KHA

Khabarovsk to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.88 · projected 1–2

The numbers side with Khabarovsk (53%) on the road against Bars Kazan, with 2–1 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

BARBars Kazan in 60'

35%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

KHAKhabarovsk in 60'

41%

Game flow

BAR 1.9 · KHA 2.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.4

P2 · 0.7–0.7

P3 · 0.6–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Khabarovsk53%1.88
Regulation result (60 minutes)Khabarovsk41%2.43
Puck lineBars Kazan +1.577%1.30
Total goalsOver 3.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.34

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Khabarovsk

53%fair 1.88

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Khabarovsk

41%fair 2.43

Puck line

Bars Kazan +1.5

77%fair 1.30

Total goals

Over 3.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

74%fair 1.34

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Y. LikhachyovKHA · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5322%4.63
K. SemyonovBAR · 7 G in 19 GP · 19 GP7321%4.81
S. TerekhovBAR · 5 G in 19 GP · 19 GP5315%6.72
K. PilipenkoKHA · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4215%6.82
A. ShvaryovKHA · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4414%6.92
G. DenisenkoBAR · 5 G in 19 GP · 19 GP5314%7.02
D. KatelevskyBAR · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4114%7.02
M. MillerBAR · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4214%7.13
A. KruchininKHA · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2013%7.92
V. AbramovKHA · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3313%7.94

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Bars Kazan vs Khabarovsk?

The numbers side with Khabarovsk (53%) on the road against Bars Kazan, with 2–1 the most likely final score.

Bars Kazan have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Khabarovsk have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Bars Kazan sit 5th in the Eastern Conference, while Khabarovsk sit 6th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Bars Kazan rate −0.11 and Khabarovsk +0.18 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.28 goals to Khabarovsk. Home ice is worth about 0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Khabarovsk 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 24%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Khabarovsk −1.5 on the puck line (23%) and 3.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (4.2 projected).

Khabarovsk to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 2–1. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.