Liiga

HPK vs Kiekko-Espoo prediction

HPK8–8–0 · Home Kiekko-Espoo7–6–3 · Away06:30 PMOct 30

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Our pick

53%KIE53%KIE

Kiekko-Espoo to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.87 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Kiekko-Espoo (53%) on the road against HPK, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

HPKHPK in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

KIEKiekko-Espoo in 60'

43%

Game flow

HPK 2.4 · KIE 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 0.7–0.7

P3 · 1.1–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Kiekko-Espoo53%1.87
Regulation result (60 minutes)Kiekko-Espoo43%2.34
Puck lineHPK +1.574%1.36
Total goalsUnder 5.560%1.66
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Kiekko-Espoo

53%fair 1.87

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Kiekko-Espoo

43%fair 2.34

Puck line

HPK +1.5

74%fair 1.36

Total goals

Under 5.5

60%fair 1.66

Both teams to score

Yes

85%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. VaisanenKIE · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7625%3.94
L. SvejkovskyKIE · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8125%4.08
M. FromKIE · 6 G in 17 GP · 17 GP6421%4.72
L. ObergKIE · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5521%4.81
S. PaivarintaHPK · 6 G in 17 GP · 17 GP6319%5.18
R. VesterinenHPK · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4219%5.40
O. KorhonenHPK · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3116%6.18
J. SallinenKIE · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4016%6.31
E. de JongHPK · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3015%6.54
M. KukkonenHPK · 3 G in 17 GP · 17 GP3315%6.84

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win HPK vs Kiekko-Espoo?

The numbers side with Kiekko-Espoo (53%) on the road against HPK, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

HPK have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Kiekko-Espoo have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

HPK sit 11th, while Kiekko-Espoo sit 9th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, HPK rate −0.37 and Kiekko-Espoo +0.13 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.50 goals to Kiekko-Espoo. Home ice is worth about 0.31 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Kiekko-Espoo win it in regulation only 43% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Kiekko-Espoo −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 60% (5.3 projected).

Kiekko-Espoo to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.