Slovak Extraliga

Nitra vs Poprad prediction

Nitra6–6–1 · Home Poprad10–2–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 24

54%win chance incl. overtime46%

Our pick

54%NIT54%NIT

Nitra to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.86 · projected 3–2

Nitra are the narrow pick at 54% to win, with a projected 3–2 scoreline against Poprad.

After 60 minutes

NITNitra in 60'

42%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

POPPoprad in 60'

36%

Game flow

NIT 2.9 · POP 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.8

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Nitra54%1.86
Regulation result (60 minutes)Nitra42%2.36
Puck linePoprad +1.570%1.42
Total goalsUnder 5.551%1.98
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Nitra

54%fair 1.86

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Nitra

42%fair 2.36

Puck line

Poprad +1.5

70%fair 1.42

Total goals

Under 5.5

51%fair 1.98

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. TuranskyNIT · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5530%3.38
P. BjaloncikPOP · 8 G in 13 GP · 13 GP8629%3.43
A. DvorakPOP · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8429%3.49
A. CracknellPOP · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7926%3.85
R. JacksonNIT · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6426%3.91
M. PaulovicNIT · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4322%4.58
A. CalofPOP · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5722%4.63
M. KristofNIT · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4119%5.23
B. PollockNIT · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2718%5.51
J. UrbanekPOP · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4517%5.75

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Nitra vs Poprad?

Nitra are the narrow pick at 54% to win, with a projected 3–2 scoreline against Poprad.

This is a meeting between two teams moving in the same direction but from very different places in the table. Nitra have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch, while Poprad have won all 5 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 1.2. The form lines are close on offense, but Poprad's defensive record in that run is the tighter of the two. What separates them is the standings: Poprad sit 1st, Nitra sit 10th.

The ratings adjust for the quality of opposition, and there Poprad's case gets stronger. Nitra rate +0.03 goals per game against an average team and Poprad +0.40, an edge of 0.36 goals to Poprad. Home ice is worth about 0.46 goals a game in this league, which is roughly what pulls the two sides back together and keeps Nitra in front on the moneyline. In regulation the model gives Nitra 42% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

The recent head-to-head is short and one-sided. These teams have met 1 time recently (Nitra 0, Poprad 1), and the latest finished Poprad 5–2 Nitra on 2026-09-20. That single result is a thin base for a trend, but it is the only direct evidence available and it favours the visitors. The market has taken all of this in and, once the bookmaker margin is removed, prices Nitra at 55% on the moneyline across 6 bookmakers, essentially matching the model's view of a near coin flip.

The projected 3–2 scoreline sits just under a 5.5 total, and our numbers make the under 5.5 goals land 51% of the time against a projected 5.8 goals, so that side is only a slight lean. On the puck line, Nitra −1.5 comes in 30% of the time on our numbers, which reflects how little separates these teams and how often a one-goal margin is the likely outcome. Neither line offers a strong edge, and the moneyline price of 55% for Nitra is close to the model's 54%.

Nitra to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54%, with a projected score of 3–2.