KHL

Yekaterinburg vs Barys Astana prediction

Yekaterinburg8–8–2 · Home Barys Astana10–7–1 · Away05:00 PMOct 26

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Our pick

51%BAR51%BAR

Barys Astana to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.96 · projected 2–3

Barys Astana are the pick on the road against Yekaterinburg, with a 51% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

YEKYekaterinburg in 60'

39%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BARBarys Astana in 60'

41%

Game flow

YEK 2.8 · BAR 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.5–0.7

P2 · 1.1–0.8

P3 · 1.2–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Barys Astana51%1.96
Regulation result (60 minutes)Barys Astana41%2.44
Puck lineYekaterinburg +1.574%1.35
Total goalsUnder 5.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Barys Astana

51%fair 1.96

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Barys Astana

41%fair 2.44

Puck line

Yekaterinburg +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Under 5.5

51%fair 1.96

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. BaileyBAR · 12 G in 18 GP · 18 GP12532%3.12
T. ThompsonBAR · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8126%3.87
D. SprongYEK · 7 G in 17 GP · 17 GP7225%3.97
J. BlackerYEK · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4124%4.22
S. SimonovBAR · 7 G in 18 GP · 18 GP7122%4.65
A. KadeykinYEK · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5221%4.83
I. KarpukhinYEK · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4621%4.86
G. PilonBAR · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6218%5.61
M. DenezhkinYEK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4417%5.72
M. MorelliBAR · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4416%6.24

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (2)

G. Pilon · Hockeywithry, CC BY 4.0
M. Morelli · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who will win Yekaterinburg vs Barys Astana?

Barys Astana are the pick on the road against Yekaterinburg, with a 51% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Form offers little separation between these two sides: both have won 2 of their last 5, and both have scored 2.6 while allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. The table tells a different story, with Barys Astana sitting 3rd in the Eastern Conference and Yekaterinburg 7th. That gap in standing is the first hint that the visitors carry the stronger body of work into this game, even if recent results look identical on paper.

The ratings sharpen that picture. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Yekaterinburg rate +0.10 goals per game against an average team and Barys Astana +0.29, an edge of 0.19 goals to the visitors. Home ice is worth about 0.13 goals a game in this league, so it narrows the gap without erasing it. The one recent meeting also went Barys Astana's way, 4–1 on 2026-10-14, after Yekaterinburg had lost the earlier encounter 0–1.

The market's view of the winner is genuinely tight. About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Barys Astana win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 51%. Yekaterinburg's case rests on home ice and a near-even recent record, and that is enough to keep this close to a coin flip. The lean toward Barys Astana is therefore modest rather than emphatic.

The projected 3–2 score sits just under our 5.5 total goals line, and the under carries 51% with 5.8 projected, so the model sees the game landing on the low side of that number. On the puck line, Barys Astana −1.5 comes in at 26%, which fits a one-goal projection and a game with a real chance of extending past 60 minutes. The 51% win probability including overtime and the shootout is the number to weigh against any price on the visitors.

Barys Astana to win, overtime and shootout included (51%), with a projected score of 3–2.