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Fischtown Pinguins vs ERC Ingolstadt prediction

Fischtown Pinguins4–7–0 · Home ERC Ingolstadt7–4–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 25

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Our pick

51%ERC51%ERC

ERC Ingolstadt to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.97 · projected 2–3

ERC Ingolstadt are the pick on the road against Fischtown Pinguins with a 51% win probability including overtime, on a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

FISFischtown Pinguins in 60'

39%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

ERCERC Ingolstadt in 60'

41%

Game flow

FIS 2.6 · ERC 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 0.8–1.0

P3 · 1.1–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)ERC Ingolstadt51%1.97
Regulation result (60 minutes)ERC Ingolstadt41%2.45
Puck lineFischtown Pinguins +1.575%1.33
Total goalsUnder 5.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

ERC Ingolstadt

51%fair 1.97

Regulation result (60 minutes)

ERC Ingolstadt

41%fair 2.45

Puck line

Fischtown Pinguins +1.5

75%fair 1.33

Total goals

Under 5.5

56%fair 1.78

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. SchmolzERC · 8 G in 11 GP · 11 GP8634%2.97
P. BruggisserFIS · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5332%3.09
R. BarberERC · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6526%3.83
P. AbbandonatoERC · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5823%4.34
R. SheenERC · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5221%4.87
N. KinderFIS · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2019%5.35
M. GortzFIS · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2218%5.55
P. TuomieFIS · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2017%5.92
A. KeatingERC · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3516%6.18
A. HiroseFIS · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2216%6.41

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Fischtown Pinguins vs ERC Ingolstadt?

ERC Ingolstadt are the pick on the road against Fischtown Pinguins with a 51% win probability including overtime, on a projected 3–2 score.

Form points one way here. Fischtown Pinguins have won just 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.0 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch, while ERC Ingolstadt have won 4 of their last 5 at 3.8 scored and 2.4 allowed. The table agrees with the run of play: Fischtown Pinguins sit 12th and ERC Ingolstadt sit 6th.

The underlying numbers narrow the gap. Once the quality of opposition is accounted for, Fischtown Pinguins come out at −0.34 goals per game against an average team and ERC Ingolstadt at +0.01, a 0.35-goal edge to the visitors. Home ice is worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league, so it eats most of that advantage and leaves the matchup finely balanced.

That balance is why the market has ERC Ingolstadt at only 51% with overtime and the shootout included. Roughly 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which trims the regulation win to 41% and hands the rest to the extra period. The lean is real but thin, and the projected 3–2 scoreline reflects a game that should stay close.

The case for Fischtown Pinguins rests on home ice and the fact that the ratings gap is smaller than the form and table gap suggests. The case for ERC Ingolstadt rests on recent results, a better league position and a modest edge in adjusted goals. Nothing in the numbers separates these teams by much, so the pick is a lean rather than a conviction.

The projected 3–2 score puts the game right on the 5.5 total, and our under price of 56% is consistent with a low-scoring, tight contest. On the puck line, ERC Ingolstadt −1.5 is priced at 25%, so a one-goal margin — exactly what the projection shows — would not cover it. The 51% win probability including overtime is where the value sits, not the handicap.

ERC Ingolstadt to win, overtime and shootout included (51%), with a projected score of 3–2.