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Iserlohn Roosters vs Nurnberg Ice Tigers prediction

Iserlohn Roosters3–6–1 · Home Nurnberg Ice Tigers6–4–1 · Away03:30 PM UTCOct 25

41%win chance incl. overtime59%

Our pick

59%NUR59%NUR

Nurnberg Ice Tigers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.69 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Nurnberg Ice Tigers 59% favourites on the road against Iserlohn Roosters, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

ISEIserlohn Roosters in 60'

32%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

NURNurnberg Ice Tigers in 60'

49%

Game flow

ISE 2.6 · NUR 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.0

P2 · 1.0–1.1

P3 · 1.0–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Nurnberg Ice Tigers59%1.69
Regulation result (60 minutes)Nurnberg Ice Tigers49%2.03
Puck lineIserlohn Roosters +1.567%1.49
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Nurnberg Ice Tigers

59%fair 1.69

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Nurnberg Ice Tigers

49%fair 2.03

Puck line

Iserlohn Roosters +1.5

67%fair 1.49

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.92

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. MageraNUR · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6228%3.54
E. BarrattNUR · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5226%3.87
S. Dove-McFallsNUR · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4322%4.60
T. HeiglNUR · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4322%4.60
J. NapravnikISE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3321%4.71
C. ThomasISE · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3321%4.75
J. CatesNUR · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3520%4.97
C. UgbekileISE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3519%5.23
J. ScottISE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3219%5.38
M. EisenmengerISE · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2116%6.40

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Iserlohn Roosters vs Nurnberg Ice Tigers?

Our model makes Nurnberg Ice Tigers 59% favourites on the road against Iserlohn Roosters, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Iserlohn Roosters have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 4.2 goals a game over that stretch. Nurnberg Ice Tigers have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Iserlohn Roosters sit 14th, while Nurnberg Ice Tigers sit 4th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Iserlohn Roosters rate −0.54 and Nurnberg Ice Tigers +0.30 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.84 goals to Nurnberg Ice Tigers. Home ice is worth about 0.28 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Nurnberg Ice Tigers win it in regulation only 49% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 59%.

Our own lines for this game: Nurnberg Ice Tigers −1.5 on the puck line (33%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

Nurnberg Ice Tigers to win, overtime and shootout included (59%). Projected score: 3–2.