DEL

Adler Mannheim vs Frankfurt Lowen prediction

Adler Mannheim6–3–2 · Home Frankfurt Lowen4–5–1 · Away05:30 PM UTCOct 23

73%win chance incl. overtime27%

Our pick

73%ADL73%ADL

Adler Mannheim to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.37 · projected 3–2

Adler Mannheim are the pick at 73% to win, overtime and shootout included, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

ADLAdler Mannheim in 60'

62%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

FRAFrankfurt Lowen in 60'

19%

Game flow

ADL 3.0 · FRA 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.4

P2 · 1.0–1.0

P3 · 1.2–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Adler Mannheim73%1.37
Regulation result (60 minutes)Adler Mannheim62%1.60
Puck lineFrankfurt Lowen +2.566%1.52
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.98
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.19

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Adler Mannheim

73%fair 1.37

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Adler Mannheim

62%fair 1.60

Puck line

Frankfurt Lowen +2.5

66%fair 1.52

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.98

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.19

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. KoseFRA · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4326%3.86
N. MattinenADL · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5224%4.09
E. UbaFRA · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5123%4.27
L. GawankeADL · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3521%4.86
C. BraceFRA · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3220%5.04
Z. SolowADL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3419%5.19
M. PlachtaADL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3518%5.58
M. HeimADL · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2118%5.66
A. WagnerFRA · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2217%5.96
M. SchweigerFRA · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1213%7.47

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Adler Mannheim vs Frankfurt Lowen?

Adler Mannheim are the pick at 73% to win, overtime and shootout included, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

Adler Mannheim come into this home game as clear favourites, and the ratings explain why. Adjusted for the opponents each side has faced, Adler Mannheim rate +0.32 goals per game against an average team while Frankfurt Lowen sit at +0.01, an edge of 0.31 goals to the home side. Add home ice, worth about 0.28 goals a game in this league, and the gap widens further in Adler Mannheim's favour.

Form and the table point the same way. Adler Mannheim have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch, while Frankfurt Lowen have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.8. Adler Mannheim sit 3rd and Frankfurt Lowen 11th, so the visitors arrive as the underdog and their case rests on keeping this close rather than on any edge in the numbers.

The model splits the result across regulation and beyond. Adler Mannheim get 62% to win inside 60 minutes, with an 18% chance the game is tied after three periods and goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout; folding those paths together gives the 73% figure. The market is even more convinced: once the bookmaker margin is removed, the moneyline across 9 bookmakers prices Adler Mannheim at 79%.

The projected 3–2 scoreline is a tight one, which matters for how the game is likely to be decided. Frankfurt Lowen's recent scoring of 2.2 a game suggests they can find the net, but their 2.8 allowed leaves room for Adler Mannheim's 3.0 to tell. The picks follow the model's numbers rather than the market's stronger view of the home side.

The projected 3–2 final implies a one-goal margin, which puts Adler Mannheim −2.5 on the puck line out of reach on our numbers, coming in 34% of the time. The same projection of 5.6 goals sits just above the line, so the over 5.5 goals lands 51%, a near coin-flip rather than a strong lean either way.

Adler Mannheim to win, overtime and shootout included, at 73%, with a projected score of 3–2.