DEL2

Dusseldorf vs Bad Nauheim prediction

Dusseldorf10–0–0 · Home Bad Nauheim2–7–1 · Away02:00 PM UTCOct 25

68%win chance incl. overtime32%

Our pick

68%DUS68%DUS

Dusseldorf to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.46 · projected 3–2

Dusseldorf are the pick at home against Bad Nauheim: a 68% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

DUSDusseldorf in 60'

58%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

BADBad Nauheim in 60'

23%

Game flow

DUS 3.4 · BAD 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.3–0.8

P2 · 1.4–1.0

P3 · 0.8–0.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Dusseldorf68%1.46
Regulation result (60 minutes)Dusseldorf58%1.71
Puck lineBad Nauheim +1.558%1.72
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.98
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Dusseldorf

68%fair 1.46

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Dusseldorf

58%fair 1.71

Puck line

Bad Nauheim +1.5

58%fair 1.72

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.98

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. MackinDUS · 8 G in 9 GP · 9 GP8838%2.61
C. TurnbullDUS · 8 G in 9 GP · 9 GP81037%2.69
V. JarvelainenDUS · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5427%3.69
L. NiederbergerDUS · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4221%4.77
E. BradfordDUS · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3819%5.17
J. KeussenBAD · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3117%5.72
P. PretoBAD · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2516%6.42
J. KornelliBAD · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3316%6.43
A. McPhersonBAD · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2315%6.69
M. MarcinewBAD · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2114%7.39

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Dusseldorf vs Bad Nauheim?

Dusseldorf are the pick at home against Bad Nauheim: a 68% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Dusseldorf have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 5.2 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Bad Nauheim have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Dusseldorf sit 1st, while Bad Nauheim sit 14th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Dusseldorf rate +0.62 and Bad Nauheim −0.19 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.81 goals to Dusseldorf. Home ice is worth about 0.34 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Dusseldorf 58% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 18%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Dusseldorf −1.5 on the puck line (42%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (5.9 projected).

Dusseldorf to win, overtime and shootout included (68%). Projected score: 3–2.