NHL

Vancouver Canucks vs Minnesota Wild prediction

Vancouver Canucks2–9–1 · Home Minnesota Wild6–3–2 · Away10:00 PMOct 25

42%win chance incl. overtime58%

Our pick

58%MIN58%MIN

Minnesota Wild to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.72 · projected 2–3

Minnesota Wild are the pick on the road against Vancouver Canucks, with a 58% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

VANVancouver Canucks in 60'

32%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

MINMinnesota Wild in 60'

48%

Game flow

VAN 2.8 · MIN 3.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–1.2

P2 · 0.8–1.2

P3 · 0.8–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Minnesota Wild58%1.72
Regulation result (60 minutes)Minnesota Wild48%2.08
Puck lineVancouver Canucks +1.567%1.48
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Minnesota Wild

58%fair 1.72

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Minnesota Wild

48%fair 2.08

Puck line

Vancouver Canucks +1.5

67%fair 1.48

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Vancouver Canucks

Last game: Oct 22

32LankinenProjected

JD74DeBruskLW FC77ChytilC JL88LekkerimäkiRW

1st line

9:28 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
74	Jake DeBrusk LW	17:52	3	4	7
77	Filip Chytil C	20:32	0	2	2
88	Jonathan Lekkerimäki RW	17:44	4	5	9

18 points this season

DO18O'ConnorLW

40PetterssonC LK94KarlssonRW

2nd line

11:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Drew O'Connor LW	16:49	1	2	3
40	Elias Pettersson C	20:48	4	8	12
94	Linus Karlsson RW	17:13	3	5	8

23 points this season

AB13BainsLW MS63SassonC BG7GallagherRW

3rd line

8:41 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
13	Arshdeep Bains LW	11:18	1	2	3
63	Max Sasson C	13:23	3	1	4
7	Brendan Gallagher RW	10:29	0	2	2

9 points this season

PC47CotterLW MR23RossiC BB6BoeserRW

4th line

4:41 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
47	Paul Cotter LW	11:13	4	3	7
23	Marco Rossi C	9:38	3	2	5
6	Brock Boeser RW	14:09	2	6	8

20 points this season

FH17HronekD

EP25PetterssonD

1st pair

16:08 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Filip Hronek D	24:26	0	7	7
25	Elias Pettersson D	20:10	–	–	–

TW5WillanderD ZB8BuiumD

2nd pair

12:50 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
5	Tom Willander D	21:18	0	3	3
8	Zeev Buium D	20:57	0	3	3

6 points this season

JO4OleksiakD VM90ManciniD

3rd pair

4:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Jamie Oleksiak D	15:09	1	3	4
90	Victor Mancini D	11:54	0	0	0

4 points this season

40PetterssonF JD74DeBruskF JL88LekkerimäkiF

BB6BoeserF FH17HronekD

Power play unit 1

3:51 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
40	Elias Pettersson F	20:48	4	8	12
74	Jake DeBrusk F	17:52	3	4	7
88	Jonathan Lekkerimäki F	17:44	4	5	9
6	Brock Boeser F	14:09	2	6	8
17	Filip Hronek D	24:26	0	7	7

43 points this season

FC77ChytilF LK94KarlssonF PC47CotterF

MR23RossiF ZB8BuiumD

Power play unit 2

1:31 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Filip Chytil F	20:32	0	2	2
94	Linus Karlsson F	17:13	3	5	8
47	Paul Cotter F	11:13	4	3	7
23	Marco Rossi F	9:38	3	2	5
8	Zeev Buium D	20:57	0	3	3

25 points this season

FC77ChytilF MS63SassonF

JO4OleksiakD VM90ManciniD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:06 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Filip Chytil F	20:32	0	2	2
63	Max Sasson F	13:23	3	1	4
4	Jamie Oleksiak D	15:09	1	3	4
90	Victor Mancini D	11:54	0	0	0

10 points this season

40PetterssonF BB6BoeserF

FH17HronekD

EP25PetterssonD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:30 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
40	Elias Pettersson F	20:48	4	8	12
6	Brock Boeser F	14:09	2	6	8
17	Filip Hronek D	24:26	0	7	7
25	Elias Pettersson D	20:10	–	–	–

Goalies: Kevin Lankinen #32 (Projected) · Leevi Meriläinen #31 (Backup)

Minnesota Wild

Last game: Oct 22

31PickardProjected

MB12BoldyLW JE14EkC KK97KaprizovRW

1st line

11:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Matt Boldy LW	25:05	5	4	9
14	Joel Eriksson Ek C	23:14	2	4	6
97	Kirill Kaprizov RW	24:54	11	6	17

32 points this season

BC20ColemanLW RH38HartmanC BB10BrinkRW

2nd line

8:02 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Blake Coleman LW	14:23	2	1	3
38	Ryan Hartman C	13:15	1	0	1
10	Bobby Brink RW	13:57	0	3	3

7 points this season

RL61LorenzLW YT13TreninC DY22YurovRW

3rd line

6:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
61	Rieger Lorenz LW	8:40	0	0	0
13	Yakov Trenin C	10:49	0	2	2
22	Danila Yurov RW	19:27	4	0	4

6 points this season

NS78SturmLW MM47McCarronC

19PitlickRW

4th line

5:35 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
78	Nico Sturm LW	9:52	0	1	1
47	Michael McCarron C	11:28	1	4	5
19	Tyler Pitlick RW	6:44	0	0	0

6 points this season

QH43HughesD JB25BrodinD

1st pair

12:43 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
43	Quinn Hughes D	31:04	2	10	12
25	Jonas Brodin D	19:06	0	3	3

15 points this season

JS46SpurgeonD DH48HuntD

2nd pair

7:32 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
46	Jared Spurgeon D	19:19	1	4	5
48	Daemon Hunt D	16:09	0	0	0

5 points this season

ZB24BogosianD OM3MäättäD

3rd pair

7:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Zach Bogosian D	14:18	0	0	0
3	Olli Määttä D	14:16	0	2	2

2 points this season

MB12BoldyF KK97KaprizovF JE14EkF

DY22YurovF QH43HughesD

Power play unit 1

5:19 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Matt Boldy F	25:05	5	4	9
97	Kirill Kaprizov F	24:54	11	6	17
14	Joel Eriksson Ek F	23:14	2	4	6
22	Danila Yurov F	19:27	4	0	4
43	Quinn Hughes D	31:04	2	10	12

48 points this season

BC20ColemanF BB10BrinkF RH38HartmanF

JS46SpurgeonD DH48HuntD

Power play unit 2

1:26 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Blake Coleman F	14:23	2	1	3
10	Bobby Brink F	13:57	0	3	3
38	Ryan Hartman F	13:15	1	0	1
46	Jared Spurgeon D	19:19	1	4	5
48	Daemon Hunt D	16:09	0	0	0

12 points this season

DY22YurovF YT13TreninF

ZB24BogosianD OM3MäättäD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:18 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Danila Yurov F	19:27	4	0	4
13	Yakov Trenin F	10:49	0	2	2
24	Zach Bogosian D	14:18	0	0	0
3	Olli Määttä D	14:16	0	2	2

8 points this season

MM47McCarronF NS78SturmF

JS46SpurgeonD JB25BrodinD

Penalty kill unit 2

1:15 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
47	Michael McCarron F	11:28	1	4	5
78	Nico Sturm F	9:52	0	1	1
46	Jared Spurgeon D	19:19	1	4	5
25	Jonas Brodin D	19:06	0	3	3

14 points this season

Goalies: Calvin Pickard #31 (Projected) · Jesper Wallstedt #30 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (5)

Elias Pettersson · Matt.davs, CC BY-SA 4.0
Kevin Lankinen · HickoryOughtShirt?4, CC BY-SA 4.0
Leevi Meriläinen · Hockeywithry, CC BY 4.0
Tyler Pitlick · Connor Mah, CC BY-SA 3.0
Calvin Pickard · ArtBrom, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Kevin Lankinen VAN

.812 save percentage

6.17 GAA · 1–7–0 · 7 starts

Calvin Pickard MIN

.800 save percentage

5.00 GAA · 0–1–0 · 1 start

Back-up expected: second night of a back-to-back

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Kevin Lankinen · HickoryOughtShirt?4, CC BY-SA 4.0
Calvin Pickard · ArtBrom, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Kirill KaprizovMIN · LW · 11 G in 11 GP · 11 GP11848%2.09
Matt BoldyMIN · LW · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5630%3.38
Danila YurovMIN · RW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4227%3.67
Jonathan LekkerimäkiVAN · RW · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4421%4.68
Elias PetterssonVAN · C · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4421%4.79
Linus KarlssonVAN · C · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3319%5.40
Paul CotterVAN · LW · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4118%5.53
Joel Eriksson EkMIN · C · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2318%5.68
Max SassonVAN · C · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3217%5.73
Maxim ShabanovMIN · RW · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2116%6.22

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (1)

Elias Pettersson · Matt.davs, CC BY-SA 4.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Vancouver Canucks vs Minnesota Wild?

Minnesota Wild are the pick on the road against Vancouver Canucks, with a 58% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Minnesota Wild carry the edge into this one, and the model's 58% win probability reflects a clear gap between the sides. Vancouver Canucks have lost all five of their recent games, conceding 4.2 goals a game while scoring just 2.2. Minnesota Wild, meanwhile, have taken two of their last five, with a far tighter 3.2 goals allowed per game. The form line alone points one way.

The table tells a similar story: Vancouver Canucks sit 16th in the Western Conference, while Minnesota Wild are 5th. Adjusting for the quality of opponents faced, Vancouver Canucks rate −0.57 goals per game and Minnesota Wild +0.20, a 0.77-goal edge to the visitors. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league, which narrows but does not close that gap.

The market still gives Vancouver Canucks a path through home advantage and the randomness of a single game. About 20% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, which is why Minnesota Wild win in regulation only 48% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout account for the rest of the 58%. The projected 3–2 scoreline fits that picture: a tight game that Minnesota Wild are more likely to finish on top.

Our predictions make Minnesota Wild the clear favourite despite playing on the road. The ratings edge of 0.77 goals outweighs the 0.25-goal home-ice allowance, and the recent form of both teams reinforces it. Vancouver Canucks need a much better defensive effort than their last five games have shown to keep this close.

The projected 3–2 score has Minnesota Wild winning by a single goal, which makes the −1.5 puck line a tough ask at 33%. With 6.3 goals projected against a 6.5 line, the under carries 54% probability, so the model leans to a lower-scoring game than the line suggests. The 58% moneyline price on Minnesota Wild, overtime and shootout included, is where the numbers are most comfortable.

Minnesota Wild to win, overtime and shootout included (58%), with a projected 3–2 score.