KHL

SKA St. Petersburg vs Nizhny Novgorod prediction

SKA St. Petersburg9–7–1 · Home Nizhny Novgorod11–5–1 · Away07:30 PMOct 27

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%NIZ54%NIZ

Nizhny Novgorod to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.86 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Nizhny Novgorod 54% favourites on the road against SKA St. Petersburg, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

SKASKA St. Petersburg in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

NIZNizhny Novgorod in 60'

43%

Game flow

SKA 2.5 · NIZ 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.9

P2 · 0.9–0.9

P3 · 0.6–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Nizhny Novgorod54%1.86
Regulation result (60 minutes)Nizhny Novgorod43%2.31
Puck lineSKA St. Petersburg +1.573%1.37
Total goalsUnder 5.558%1.74
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Nizhny Novgorod

54%fair 1.86

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Nizhny Novgorod

43%fair 2.31

Puck line

SKA St. Petersburg +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Under 5.5

58%fair 1.74

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. SeroukhNIZ · 9 G in 14 GP · 14 GP9430%3.35
S. PlotnikovSKA · 9 G in 17 GP · 17 GP9025%4.06
S. GoncharukNIZ · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5222%4.60
A. GarayevNIZ · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3220%4.90
V. GlotovSKA · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5320%5.03
V. AtanasovSKA · 6 G in 17 GP · 17 GP6220%5.04
V. TkachyovNIZ · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4318%5.59
D. AimurzinSKA · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5217%6.01
M. PolyakovNIZ · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2316%6.22
M. KorotkySKA · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4315%6.80

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win SKA St. Petersburg vs Nizhny Novgorod?

Our model makes Nizhny Novgorod 54% favourites on the road against SKA St. Petersburg, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

SKA St. Petersburg have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Nizhny Novgorod have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

SKA St. Petersburg sit 7th in the Western Conference, while Nizhny Novgorod sit 4th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, SKA St. Petersburg rate −0.05 and Nizhny Novgorod +0.24 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.30 goals to Nizhny Novgorod. Home ice is worth about 0.09 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Nizhny Novgorod 43% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Nizhny Novgorod −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 58% (5.4 projected).

Nizhny Novgorod to win, overtime and shootout included (54%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.