NHL

Edmonton Oilers vs Detroit Red Wings prediction

Edmonton Oilers8–1–1 · Home Detroit Red Wings4–3–3 · Away09:30 PMOct 26

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%EDM61%EDM

Edmonton Oilers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.63 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Edmonton Oilers (61%) at home against Detroit Red Wings, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

EDMEdmonton Oilers in 60'

51%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

DETDetroit Red Wings in 60'

29%

Game flow

EDM 3.5 · DET 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.7

P2 · 1.3–0.9

P3 · 0.9–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Edmonton Oilers61%1.63
Regulation result (60 minutes)Edmonton Oilers51%1.95
Puck lineDetroit Red Wings +1.564%1.55
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Edmonton Oilers

61%fair 1.63

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Edmonton Oilers

51%fair 1.95

Puck line

Detroit Red Wings +1.5

64%fair 1.55

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.90

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Edmonton Oilers

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

12:41 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
29	Leon Draisaitl LW	24:25	10	11	21
97	Connor McDavid C	25:02	8	23	31
92	Vasily Podkolzin RW	18:05	7	5	12

64 points this season

18HymanLW

93Nugent-HopkinsC

42KapanenRW

2nd line

12:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Zach Hyman LW	20:31	1	0	1
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C	20:58	1	1	2
42	Kasperi Kapanen RW	20:06	3	1	4

7 points this season

26FormentonLW

21JosephC OM43MichaelsRW

3rd line

6:54 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
26	Alex Formenton LW	10:17	1	3	4
21	Mathieu Joseph C	11:33	2	3	5
43	Owen Michaels RW	12:08	2	2	4

13 points this season

53HowardLW CD34DachC

10FredericRW

4th line

6:04 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
53	Isaac Howard LW	10:07	0	2	2
34	Colton Dach C	11:17	0	0	0
10	Trent Frederic RW	8:28	1	0	1

3 points this season

6SheaD

5MurphyD

1st pair

15:29 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Ryan Shea D	28:45	1	2	3
5	Connor Murphy D	22:21	0	1	1

4 points this season

2BouchardD

14EkholmD

2nd pair

9:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
2	Evan Bouchard D	29:59	7	11	18
14	Mattias Ekholm D	14:16	1	2	3

21 points this season

96WalmanD TE49EmbersonD

3rd pair

6:50 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
96	Jake Walman D	15:19	0	1	1
49	Ty Emberson D	10:05	0	1	1

2 points this season

Power play unit 1

3:27 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
97	Connor McDavid F	25:02	8	23	31
29	Leon Draisaitl F	24:25	10	11	21
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins F	20:58	1	1	2
18	Zach Hyman F	20:31	1	0	1
2	Evan Bouchard D	29:59	7	11	18

73 points this season

42KapanenF

92PodkolzinF CD34DachF

53HowardF

6SheaD

Power play unit 2

0:46 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
42	Kasperi Kapanen F	20:06	3	1	4
92	Vasily Podkolzin F	18:05	7	5	12
34	Colton Dach F	11:17	0	0	0
53	Isaac Howard F	10:07	0	2	2
6	Ryan Shea D	28:45	1	2	3

21 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

0:42 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Mathieu Joseph F	11:33	2	3	5
26	Alex Formenton F	10:17	1	3	4
6	Ryan Shea D	28:45	1	2	3
96	Jake Walman D	15:19	0	1	1

13 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Devon Levi #27 (Projected) · Tristan Jarry #35 (Backup)

Detroit Red Wings

Last game: Oct 22

36GibsonProjected

LR23RaymondLW DL71LarkinC MB28Brandsegg-NygårdRW

1st line

13:42 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
23	Lucas Raymond LW	17:42	3	5	8
71	Dylan Larkin C	20:09	1	4	5
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård RW	16:25	2	6	8

21 points this season

VA33ArvidssonLW EF58FinnieC AD93DeBrincatRW

2nd line

9:51 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
33	Viktor Arvidsson LW	13:59	4	3	7
58	Emmitt Finnie C	15:00	4	3	7
93	Alex DeBrincat RW	15:15	6	5	11

25 points this season

JC37CompherLW AC18CoppC MR27RasmussenRW

3rd line

9:31 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
37	J.T. Compher LW	13:20	0	1	1
18	Andrew Copp C	15:30	1	1	2
27	Michael Rasmussen RW	14:34	1	2	3

6 points this season

CM34MazurLW ND29DanielsonC KK55KolesarRW

4th line

7:36 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	A	P
34	Carter Mazur LW	10:49	1	1
29	Nate Danielson C	10:15	2	2
55	Keegan Kolesar RW	13:09	0	0

3 points this season

MS53SeiderD BC8ChiarotD

1st pair

15:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
8	Ben Chiarot D	22:30	0	1	1

6 points this season

AJ20JohanssonD

AJ42JohanssonD

2nd pair

12:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Albert Johansson D	19:44	1	4	5
42	Anton Johansson D	17:48	–	–	–

JF72FaulkD WW54WallinderD

3rd pair

11:42 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
72	Justin Faulk D	20:21	2	2	4
54	William Wallinder D	13:34	2	1	3

7 points this season

DL71LarkinF LR23RaymondF AD93DeBrincatF

VA33ArvidssonF MS53SeiderD

Power play unit 1

1:41 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Dylan Larkin F	20:09	1	4	5
23	Lucas Raymond F	17:42	3	5	8
93	Alex DeBrincat F	15:15	6	5	11
33	Viktor Arvidsson F	13:59	4	3	7
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5

36 points this season

MB28Brandsegg-NygårdF AC18CoppF EF58FinnieF

MR27RasmussenF JF72FaulkD

Power play unit 2

0:44 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård F	16:25	2	6	8
18	Andrew Copp F	15:30	1	1	2
58	Emmitt Finnie F	15:00	4	3	7
27	Michael Rasmussen F	14:34	1	2	3
72	Justin Faulk D	20:21	2	2	4

24 points this season

DL71LarkinF EF58FinnieF

MS53SeiderD BC8ChiarotD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:16 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Dylan Larkin F	20:09	1	4	5
58	Emmitt Finnie F	15:00	4	3	7
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
8	Ben Chiarot D	22:30	0	1	1

18 points this season

MR27RasmussenF KK55KolesarF

MS53SeiderD AJ20JohanssonD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:59 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
27	Michael Rasmussen F	14:34	1	2	3
55	Keegan Kolesar F	13:09	0	0	0
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
20	Albert Johansson D	19:44	1	4	5

13 points this season

Goalies: John Gibson #36 (Projected) · Michal Postava #35 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (18)

Leon Draisaitl · Sven Mandel, CC BY-SA 4.0
Connor McDavid · Connor Mah, CC BY-SA 3.0
Vasily Podkolzin · Northwest, CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Hyman · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Kasperi Kapanen · David, CC BY 2.0
Alex Formenton · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Mathieu Joseph · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Isaac Howard · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Trent Frederic · Marissa Babin, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Shea · Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY-SA 4.0
Connor Murphy · 5of7, CC BY-SA 1.0
Evan Bouchard · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Mattias Ekholm · Canada Hky, CC BY 3.0
Jake Walman · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Devon Levi · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tristan Jarry · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
John Gibson · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Devon Levi EDM

.887 save percentage

3.11 GAA · 6–1–0 · 7 starts

John Gibson DET

.871 save percentage

3.35 GAA · 3–3–1 · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Devon Levi · Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0
John Gibson · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Leon DraisaitlEDM · C · 10 G in 10 GP · 10 GP101242%2.37
Connor McDavidEDM · C · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP81836%2.78
Vasily PodkolzinEDM · RW · 7 G in 10 GP · 10 GP7530%3.35
Evan BouchardEDM · D · 7 G in 10 GP · 10 GP7630%3.38
Alex DeBrincatDET · RW · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6630%3.38
Emmitt FinnieDET · C · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4623%4.37
Viktor ArvidssonDET · LW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4321%4.65
Lucas RaymondDET · LW · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3521%4.83
Kasperi KapanenEDM · RW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3117%5.73
William WallinderDET · D · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2115%6.52

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (5)

Leon Draisaitl · Sven Mandel, CC BY-SA 4.0
Connor McDavid · Connor Mah, CC BY-SA 3.0
Vasily Podkolzin · Northwest, CC BY-SA 4.0
Evan Bouchard · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Kasperi Kapanen · David, CC BY 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Edmonton Oilers vs Detroit Red Wings?

The numbers side with Edmonton Oilers (61%) at home against Detroit Red Wings, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Edmonton Oilers have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Detroit Red Wings have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Edmonton Oilers sit 1st in the Western Conference, while Detroit Red Wings sit 11th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Edmonton Oilers rate +0.45 and Detroit Red Wings −0.04 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.49 goals to Edmonton Oilers. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Edmonton Oilers win it in regulation only 51% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 61%.

Our own lines for this game: Edmonton Oilers −1.5 on the puck line (36%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 53% (6.4 projected).

Edmonton Oilers to win, overtime and shootout included (61%). Projected score: 3–2.