NHL

Vegas Golden Knights vs New Jersey Devils prediction

Vegas Golden Knights8–4–0 · Home New Jersey Devils6–4–0 · Away06:00 PMOct 30

56%win chance incl. overtime44%

Our pick

56%VEG56%VEG

Vegas Golden Knights to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Vegas Golden Knights 56% favourites at home against New Jersey Devils, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

VEGVegas Golden Knights in 60'

46%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

NEWNew Jersey Devils in 60'

34%

Game flow

VEG 3.3 · NEW 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.0

P2 · 1.4–1.0

P3 · 1.0–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Vegas Golden Knights56%1.79
Regulation result (60 minutes)Vegas Golden Knights46%2.19
Puck lineNew Jersey Devils +1.569%1.44
Total goalsUnder 6.552%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.09

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Vegas Golden Knights

56%fair 1.79

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Vegas Golden Knights

46%fair 2.19

Puck line

New Jersey Devils +1.5

69%fair 1.44

Total goals

Under 6.5

52%fair 1.94

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.09

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Vegas Golden Knights

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

14:02 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
49	Ivan Barbashev LW	18:52	1	7	8
9	Jack Eichel C	16:46	5	14	19
61	Mark Stone RW	16:46	8	6	14

41 points this season

21HowdenLW

71KarlssonC

10HoltzRW

2nd line

12:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Brett Howden LW	15:53	5	3	8
71	William Karlsson C	16:34	2	2	4
10	Alexander Holtz RW	14:04	0	1	1

13 points this season

TC24ConnellyLW

48HertlC BB42BowmanRW

3rd line

6:46 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Trevor Connelly LW	13:53	4	1	5
48	Tomáš Hertl C	14:20	4	3	7
42	Braeden Bowman RW	14:56	2	2	4

16 points this season

MG17GatcombLW

26DowdC

36LavoieRW

4th line

3:45 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Marc Gatcomb LW	11:56	1	1	2
26	Nic Dowd C	11:56	0	2	2
36	Raphael Lavoie RW	11:51	0	2	2

6 points this season

3McNabbD

27TheodoreD

1st pair

17:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
3	Brayden McNabb D	22:47	0	7	7
27	Shea Theodore D	22:37	2	2	4

11 points this season

4AnderssonD

5LauzonD

2nd pair

14:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Rasmus Andersson D	19:48	2	3	5
5	Jeremy Lauzon D	18:15	0	0	0

5 points this season

15HanifinD

52CoghlanD

3rd pair

13:09 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
15	Noah Hanifin D	21:09	2	3	5
52	Dylan Coghlan D	15:28	0	1	1

6 points this season

Power play unit 1: No such unit in that game.

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Penalty kill unit 1

1:07 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	William Karlsson F	16:34	2	2	4
26	Nic Dowd F	11:56	0	2	2
3	Brayden McNabb D	22:47	0	7	7
27	Shea Theodore D	22:37	2	2	4

17 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:38 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
61	Mark Stone F	16:46	8	6	14
9	Jack Eichel F	16:46	5	14	19
4	Rasmus Andersson D	19:48	2	3	5
5	Jeremy Lauzon D	18:15	0	0	0

38 points this season

Goalies: Carter Hart #79 (Projected) · Adin Hill #33 (Backup)

New Jersey Devils

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

11:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Timo Meier LW	16:40	1	3	4
13	Nico Hischier C	16:31	5	2	7
77	Luke Evangelista RW	17:16	3	2	5

16 points this season

63BrattLW

86HughesC AG81GritsyukRW

2nd line

11:18 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
63	Jesper Bratt LW	15:28	2	6	8
86	Jack Hughes C	18:49	3	8	11
81	Arseny Gritsyuk RW	15:40	5	2	7

26 points this season

70BoqvistLW

12GlassC

16BrownRW

3rd line

8:33 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
70	Jesper Boqvist LW	13:41	3	1	4
12	Cody Glass C	13:45	1	0	1
16	Connor Brown RW	13:00	0	2	2

7 points this season

17RodriguesLW

91MercerC

39ManthaRW

4th line

10:07 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Evan Rodrigues LW	12:55	2	2	4
91	Dawson Mercer C	13:55	0	4	4
39	Anthony Mantha RW	11:34	2	1	3

11 points this season

43HughesD

22PesceD

1st pair

18:01 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
43	Luke Hughes D	24:19	3	1	4
22	Brett Pesce D	21:32	0	3	3

7 points this season

71SiegenthalerD

7HamiltonD

2nd pair

18:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Jonas Siegenthaler D	21:15	0	2	2
7	Dougie Hamilton D	21:09	1	4	5

7 points this season

JK8KovacevicD

47ChisholmD

3rd pair

13:26 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Johnathan Kovacevic D	15:41	0	0	0
47	Declan Chisholm D	14:50	1	1	2

2 points this season

Power play unit 1

1:35 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
86	Jack Hughes F	18:49	3	8	11
77	Luke Evangelista F	17:16	3	2	5
13	Nico Hischier F	16:31	5	2	7
63	Jesper Bratt F	15:28	2	6	8
43	Luke Hughes D	24:19	3	1	4

35 points this season

Power play unit 2

0:52 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Timo Meier F	16:40	1	3	4
91	Dawson Mercer F	13:55	0	4	4
17	Evan Rodrigues F	12:55	2	2	4
22	Brett Pesce D	21:32	0	3	3
47	Declan Chisholm D	14:50	1	1	2

17 points this season

AG81GritsyukF

17RodriguesF

43HughesD JK8KovacevicD

Penalty kill unit 1

0:32 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
81	Arseny Gritsyuk F	15:40	5	2	7
17	Evan Rodrigues F	12:55	2	2	4
43	Luke Hughes D	24:19	3	1	4
8	Johnathan Kovacevic D	15:41	0	0	0

15 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Jake Allen #34 (Projected) · Nico Daws #50 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (35)

Ivan Barbashev · Johnmaxmena2, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jack Eichel · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Mark Stone · Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brett Howden · The Kip, CC BY-SA 4.0
William Karlsson · Frankie Fouganthin, CC BY-SA 4.0
Alexander Holtz · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Tomáš Hertl · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nic Dowd · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Raphael Lavoie · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Brayden McNabb · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Shea Theodore · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Rasmus Andersson · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jeremy Lauzon · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Noah Hanifin · Photo by Jamie Kellner., CC BY-SA 3.0
Dylan Coghlan · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Adin Hill · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Carter Hart · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Timo Meier · Djmelvis, CC BY-SA 4.0
Nico Hischier · 1815online, CC BY 4.0
Luke Evangelista · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Jesper Bratt · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jack Hughes · YESNetwork, CC BY 3.0
Jesper Boqvist · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Cody Glass · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Connor Brown · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Evan Rodrigues · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Dawson Mercer · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Anthony Mantha · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Luke Hughes · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brett Pesce · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jonas Siegenthaler · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Dougie Hamilton · Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0
Declan Chisholm · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nico Daws · Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jake Allen · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Carter Hart VEG

.888 save percentage

2.87 GAA · 4–3–0 · 7 starts

Jake Allen NEW

.883 save percentage

3.15 GAA · 4–2–0 · 6 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Carter Hart · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jake Allen · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Mark StoneVEG · RW · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8835%2.89
Arseny GritsyukNEW · RW · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5529%3.44
Nico HischierNEW · C · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5428%3.62
Brett HowdenVEG · C · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5527%3.67
Jack EichelVEG · C · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5725%4.06
Trevor ConnellyVEG · LW · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4221%4.82
Tomáš HertlVEG · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4120%4.89
Jesper BoqvistNEW · C · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3218%5.42
Jack HughesNEW · C · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3618%5.53
Luke EvangelistaNEW · RW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3218%5.66

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (8)

Mark Stone · Hugh Lee from Edmonton Alberta, Canada, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nico Hischier · 1815online, CC BY 4.0
Brett Howden · The Kip, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jack Eichel · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tomáš Hertl · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jesper Boqvist · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jack Hughes · YESNetwork, CC BY 3.0
Luke Evangelista · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Vegas Golden Knights vs New Jersey Devils?

Our model makes Vegas Golden Knights 56% favourites at home against New Jersey Devils, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Vegas Golden Knights have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch. New Jersey Devils have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Vegas Golden Knights sit 2nd in the Western Conference, while New Jersey Devils sit 7th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Vegas Golden Knights rate +0.15 and New Jersey Devils +0.02 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.13 goals to Vegas Golden Knights. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Vegas Golden Knights 46% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Vegas Golden Knights −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 52% (6.4 projected).

Vegas Golden Knights to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.