AHL

Utica Comets vs Wilkes-Barre/Scranton prediction

Utica Comets4–1–0 · Home Wilkes-Barre/Scranton3–3–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 30

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Our pick

53%WIL53%WIL

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.88 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (53%) on the road against Utica Comets, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

UTIUtica Comets in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

WILWilkes-Barre/Scranton in 60'

43%

Game flow

UTI 2.9 · WIL 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 1.2–1.5

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Wilkes-Barre/Scranton53%1.88
Regulation result (60 minutes)Wilkes-Barre/Scranton43%2.30
Puck lineUtica Comets +1.572%1.40
Total goalsUnder 6.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton

53%fair 1.88

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton

43%fair 2.30

Puck line

Utica Comets +1.5

72%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 6.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Utica Comets vs Wilkes-Barre/Scranton?

The numbers side with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (53%) on the road against Utica Comets, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Utica Comets have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.8 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Utica Comets sit 6th in the North Division, while Wilkes-Barre/Scranton sit 4th in the Atlantic Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Utica Comets rate +0.10 and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton +0.18 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.08 goals to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Wilkes-Barre/Scranton win it in regulation only 43% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 55% (6.2 projected).

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.