AHL

Toronto Marlies vs Hershey Bears prediction

Toronto Marlies5–2–0 · Home Hershey Bears4–2–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 30

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Our pick

51%HER51%HER

Hershey Bears to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.97 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Hershey Bears 51% favourites on the road against Toronto Marlies, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

TORToronto Marlies in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

HERHershey Bears in 60'

41%

Game flow

TOR 3.0 · HER 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–1.0

P2 · 0.9–1.0

P3 · 1.1–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Hershey Bears51%1.97
Regulation result (60 minutes)Hershey Bears41%2.43
Puck lineToronto Marlies +1.574%1.36
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.87
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Hershey Bears

51%fair 1.97

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Hershey Bears

41%fair 2.43

Puck line

Toronto Marlies +1.5

74%fair 1.36

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.87

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Toronto Marlies vs Hershey Bears?

Our model makes Hershey Bears 51% favourites on the road against Toronto Marlies, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Toronto Marlies have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Hershey Bears have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Toronto Marlies sit 2nd in the North Division, while Hershey Bears sit 1st in the Atlantic Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Toronto Marlies rate +0.10 and Hershey Bears +0.03 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.07 goals to Toronto Marlies. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Hershey Bears 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Hershey Bears −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (6.3 projected).

Hershey Bears to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.