Latvian Hockey League

Energija Elektrėnai vs Liepāja prediction

Energija Elektrėnai1–4–0 · Home Liepāja4–4–2 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

44%win chance incl. overtime56%

Our pick

56%LIE56%LIE

Liepāja to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.78 · projected 3–4

Our model makes Liepāja 56% favourites on the road against Energija Elektrėnai, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 4–3 final.

After 60 minutes

ENEEnergija Elektrėnai in 60'

35%

Tied → OTTied → OT

17%

LIELiepāja in 60'

47%

Game flow

ENE 3.2 · LIE 3.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–1.2

P2 · 1.3–1.4

P3 · 1.2–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Liepāja56%1.78
Regulation result (60 minutes)Liepāja47%2.11
Puck lineEnergija Elektrėnai +1.567%1.49
Total goalsOver 6.558%1.73
Both teams to scoreYes94%1.07

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Liepāja

56%fair 1.78

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Liepāja

47%fair 2.11

Puck line

Energija Elektrėnai +1.5

67%fair 1.49

Total goals

Over 6.5

58%fair 1.73

Both teams to score

Yes

94%fair 1.07

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. OzolinsLIE · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5730%3.29
S. BaltrunasLIE · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4629%3.43
D. AndersonsLIE · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3626%3.91
P. Iso-KuorttiLIE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3221%4.66
A. BerzinsLIE · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2119%5.13

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Energija Elektrėnai vs Liepāja?

Our model makes Liepāja 56% favourites on the road against Energija Elektrėnai, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 4–3 final.

Energija Elektrėnai have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 4.6 goals a game over that stretch. Liepāja have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 4.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Energija Elektrėnai sit 9th, while Liepāja sit 5th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Energija Elektrėnai rate −0.49 and Liepāja +0.08 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.57 goals to Liepāja. Home ice is worth about 0.16 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Liepāja 47% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 17%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Liepāja −1.5 on the puck line (33%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 58% (7 projected).

Liepāja to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 4–3. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.