National League

ZSC Lions vs Ambrì-Piotta prediction

ZSC Lions13–1–0 · Home Ambrì-Piotta8–5–1 · Away07:45 PMOct 30

63%win chance incl. overtime37%

Our pick

63%ZSC63%ZSC

ZSC Lions to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.59 · projected 3–2

Our model makes ZSC Lions 63% favourites at home against Ambrì-Piotta, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

ZSCZSC Lions in 60'

53%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

AMBAmbrì-Piotta in 60'

29%

Game flow

ZSC 3.5 · AMB 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.9

P2 · 1.3–0.8

P3 · 1.1–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)ZSC Lions63%1.59
Regulation result (60 minutes)ZSC Lions53%1.88
Puck lineAmbrì-Piotta +1.563%1.60
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

ZSC Lions

63%fair 1.59

Regulation result (60 minutes)

ZSC Lions

53%fair 1.88

Puck line

Ambrì-Piotta +1.5

63%fair 1.60

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

S. KnakZSC · 10 G in 14 GP · 14 GP10435%2.88
M. JolyAMB · 10 G in 14 GP · 14 GP10734%2.98
R. JarventieAMB · 9 G in 13 GP · 13 GP9932%3.11
D. MalginZSC · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5622%4.46
C. BaltisbergerZSC · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4320%4.98
J. FrodenZSC · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4320%5.07
T. De LucaAMB · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4319%5.20
M. LehtonenZSC · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3618%5.64
N. SchnarrAMB · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4817%5.97
L. LandryAMB · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2112%8.14

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win ZSC Lions vs Ambrì-Piotta?

Our model makes ZSC Lions 63% favourites at home against Ambrì-Piotta, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

ZSC Lions have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Ambrì-Piotta have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

ZSC Lions sit 1st, while Ambrì-Piotta sit 2nd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, ZSC Lions rate +0.52 and Ambrì-Piotta 0.00 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.53 goals to ZSC Lions. Home ice is worth about 0.29 goals a game in this league.

About 18% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why ZSC Lions win it in regulation only 53% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 63%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (ZSC Lions 1, Ambrì-Piotta 0); the latest finished Ambrì-Piotta 3–6 ZSC Lions on 2026-09-25.

Our own lines for this game: ZSC Lions −1.5 on the puck line (37%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (6.3 projected).

ZSC Lions to win, overtime and shootout included (63%). Projected score: 3–2.