P2 · 18'

Biel vs Zug prediction

Biel5–8–1 · Home Zug6–2–1 · Away4–0P2 · 18'

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Live · updates automatically

Our pick

53%ZUG53%ZUG

Zug to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.90 · projected 2–3

Zug are the pick on the road against Biel: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

BIEBiel in 60'

37%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

ZUGZug in 60'

42%

Game flow

BIE 2.8 · ZUG 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.4–0.8

P2 · 1.4–1.0

P3 · 1.0–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Zug53%1.90
Regulation result (60 minutes)Zug42%2.39
Puck lineBiel +1.570%1.43
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Zug

53%fair 1.90

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Zug

42%fair 2.39

Puck line

Biel +1.5

70%fair 1.43

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

G. HofmannZUG · 4 G in 6 GP · 6 GP4330%3.34
V. RohrerZUG · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5330%3.38
S. SentelerZUG · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5228%3.57
J. SkinnerBIE · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7326%3.83
T. TatarZUG · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4223%4.43
J. NeuenschwanderBIE · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3421%4.88
J. KovarZUG · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3220%5.02
G. HaasBIE · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4217%5.75
M. SylvegardBIE · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4317%5.77
M. SeverBIE · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3417%5.79

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Biel vs Zug?

Zug are the pick on the road against Biel: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Biel have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch. Zug have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 1.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Biel sit 12th, while Zug sit 9th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Biel rate −0.24 and Zug +0.49 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.72 goals to Zug. Home ice is worth about 0.29 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Zug win it in regulation only 42% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Zug at 51% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Zug −1.5 on the puck line comes in 30% of the time on our numbers, and the over 5.5 goals lands 52% against a projected 6.2 goals.

Zug to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.