National League

Ambrì-Piotta vs Ajoie prediction

Ambrì-Piotta8–4–1 · Home Ajoie7–5–2 · Away07:45 PMOct 24

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%AMB61%AMB

Ambrì-Piotta to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.64 · projected 3–2

Ambri-Piotta are the favoured side at home against Ajoie, with a 61% win probability and a projected 3–2 scoreline.

After 60 minutes

AMBAmbrì-Piotta in 60'

49%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

AJOAjoie in 60'

30%

Game flow

AMB 3.2 · AJO 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.6

P2 · 0.9–1.0

P3 · 1.1–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ambrì-Piotta61%1.64
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ambrì-Piotta49%2.02
Puck lineAjoie +1.564%1.55
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ambrì-Piotta

61%fair 1.64

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ambrì-Piotta

49%fair 2.02

Puck line

Ajoie +1.5

64%fair 1.55

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. JolyAMB · 10 G in 13 GP · 13 GP10742%2.41
R. JarventieAMB · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8836%2.79
J. NattinenAJO · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7528%3.63
A. HonkaAJO · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7327%3.73
T. De LucaAMB · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4324%4.10
J. HonkaAJO · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4422%4.62
N. SchnarrAMB · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4821%4.70
K. TanusAJO · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6421%4.81
J. TurkulainenAJO · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4819%5.19
P. KodytekAMB · 2 G in 13 GP · 13 GP2314%7.01

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Ambrì-Piotta vs Ajoie?

Ambri-Piotta are the favoured side at home against Ajoie, with a 61% win probability and a projected 3–2 scoreline.

The table sets the frame: Ambri-Piotta sit 2nd, Ajoie sit 9th, and the model's adjusted ratings point the same way. Ambri-Piotta rate +0.10 goals per game against an average team, Ajoie −0.17, a gap of 0.27 goals before home ice is added. With home advantage worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league, the home side carries a clear cushion into the matchup.

Recent form reinforces it. Ambri-Piotta have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch, a balanced profile. Ajoie have won 2 of their last 5, and while their 3.2 goals scored per game is respectable, allowing 4.2 over the same span leaves them chasing games. The single recent meeting went Ambri-Piotta's way, 3–2 at Ajoie on 2026-09-15.

The market lines up with the model rather than against it. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, the moneyline across 5 bookmakers prices Ambri-Piotta at 62%, a hair above the 61% the numbers give them. In regulation the model hands Ambri-Piotta 49% to win inside 60 minutes and puts a tie after three periods at 21%, with overtime and a shootout deciding it from there. That split is why the full-game price is the cleaner expression of the edge.

Ajoie's case rests on their scoring rate and on the 21% chance the game is level after three periods, which would drag the outcome into overtime and a shootout. Their defensive numbers over the last five work against them, though, and the ratings gap plus home ice makes a comeback scenario the less likely path. The head-to-head record, brief as it is, also sits with the home side.

The projected 3–2 score keeps the game just under the 5.5 line, and the model puts the over at 51% against a projected 6.1 goals, so the total is close to a coin flip rather than a clear lean. On the puck line, Ambri-Piotta −1.5 comes in 36% of the time on our numbers, meaning the single-goal margin implied by 3–2 is the more probable shape of the result. The moneyline is where the model and the market converge most tightly, at 61% and 62% respectively.

Take Ambri-Piotta to win, overtime and shootout included, at 61%, with a projected score of 3–2.