NHL

Los Angeles Kings vs Ottawa Senators prediction

Los Angeles Kings2–4–2 · Home Ottawa Senators7–4–0 · Away10:00 PMOct 29

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%LOS53%LOS

Los Angeles Kings to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.90 · projected 3–2

Los Angeles Kings are the pick at home against Ottawa Senators: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LOSLos Angeles Kings in 60'

42%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

OTTOttawa Senators in 60'

37%

Game flow

LOS 3.0 · OTT 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.7

P2 · 0.9–1.2

P3 · 1.0–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Los Angeles Kings53%1.90
Regulation result (60 minutes)Los Angeles Kings42%2.37
Puck lineOttawa Senators +1.573%1.37
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Los Angeles Kings

53%fair 1.90

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Los Angeles Kings

42%fair 2.37

Puck line

Ottawa Senators +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Los Angeles Kings

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

14:07 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	Artemi Panarin LW	21:28	6	3	9
9	Adrian Kempe C	20:09	3	4	7
14	Alex Laferriere RW	22:52	2	5	7

23 points this season

56HaulaLW AL47LeeC

36ZuccarelloRW

2nd line

10:02 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
56	Erik Haula LW	16:52	1	3	4
47	Andre Lee C	14:53	0	0	0
36	Mats Zuccarello RW	14:27	0	1	1

5 points this season

12MooreLW

21LaughtonC

40ArmiaRW

3rd line

9:04 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Trevor Moore LW	13:34	1	1	2
21	Scott Laughton C	13:20	1	1	2
40	Joel Armia RW	12:14	1	1	2

6 points this season

JW25WrightLW

79HeleniusC

90PerryRW

4th line

7:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
25	Jared Wright LW	10:09
79	Samuel Helenius C	9:44
90	Corey Perry RW	10:18

0 points this season

64GustafssonD

92ClarkeD

1st pair

9:59 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
64	Erik Gustafsson D	22:45	1	1	2
92	Brandt Clarke D	19:54	2	5	7

9 points this season

44AndersonD

2DumoulinD

2nd pair

15:13 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Mikey Anderson D	21:06	0	1	1
2	Brian Dumoulin D	18:41	1	0	1

2 points this season

8DoughtyD

6EdmundsonD

3rd pair

8:18 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Drew Doughty D	21:58	0	1	1
6	Joel Edmundson D	17:23	0	0	0

1 points this season

Power play unit 1

0:42 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
14	Alex Laferriere F	22:52	2	5	7
10	Artemi Panarin F	21:28	6	3	9
9	Adrian Kempe F	20:09	3	4	7
36	Mats Zuccarello F	14:27	0	1	1
92	Brandt Clarke D	19:54	2	5	7

31 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

56HaulaF AL47LeeF

44AndersonD

2DumoulinD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:02 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
56	Erik Haula F	16:52	1	3	4
47	Andre Lee F	14:53	0	0	0
44	Mikey Anderson D	21:06	0	1	1
2	Brian Dumoulin D	18:41	1	0	1

6 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:57 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
56	Erik Haula F	16:52	1	3	4
40	Joel Armia F	12:14	1	1	2
8	Drew Doughty D	21:58	0	1	1
6	Joel Edmundson D	17:23	0	0	0

7 points this season

Goalies: Darcy Kuemper #35 (Projected) · Anton Forsberg #31 (Backup)

Ottawa Senators

Last game: Oct 22

1st line

6:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Fabian Zetterlund LW	15:53	1	3	4
18	Tim Stützle C	22:54	7	7	14
28	Claude Giroux RW	18:44	2	4	6

24 points this season

71GreigLW

12PintoC

22AmadioRW

2nd line

9:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Ridly Greig LW	19:07	1	1	2
12	Shane Pinto C	20:17	2	4	6
22	Michael Amadio RW	13:55	2	2	4

12 points this season

37FoegeleLW

24CozensC

19BathersonRW

3rd line

7:46 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
37	Warren Foegele LW	12:48	1	3	4
24	Dylan Cozens C	17:17	0	2	2
19	Drake Batherson RW	18:14	4	4	8

14 points this season

21CousinsLW SH34HallidayC

42HodgsonRW

4th line

1:27 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Nick Cousins LW	9:15	1	1	2
34	Stephen Halliday C	15:20	3	2	5
42	Hayden Hodgson RW	3:03	0	0	0

7 points this season

85SandersonD

2ZubD

1st pair

10:40 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
85	Jake Sanderson D	26:09	0	2	2
2	Artem Zub D	18:46	0	1	1

3 points this season

26YakemchukD NM33MatinpaloD

2nd pair

7:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
26	Carter Yakemchuk D	17:53	1	1	2
33	Nikolas Matinpalo D	16:53	0	2	2

4 points this season

10SpenceD

43KlevenD

3rd pair

12:21 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
10	Jordan Spence D	17:34	1	1	2
43	Tyler Kleven D	17:02	1	1	2

4 points this season

Power play unit 1

2:34 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Tim Stützle F	22:54	7	7	14
19	Drake Batherson F	18:14	4	4	8
24	Dylan Cozens F	17:17	0	2	2
34	Stephen Halliday F	15:20	3	2	5
85	Jake Sanderson D	26:09	0	2	2

31 points this season

Power play unit 2

1:31 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Shane Pinto F	20:17	2	4	6
71	Ridly Greig F	19:07	1	1	2
28	Claude Giroux F	18:44	2	4	6
20	Fabian Zetterlund F	15:53	1	3	4
26	Carter Yakemchuk D	17:53	1	1	2

20 points this season

12PintoF

71GreigF

43KlevenD NM33MatinpaloD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:11 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Shane Pinto F	20:17	2	4	6
71	Ridly Greig F	19:07	1	1	2
43	Tyler Kleven D	17:02	1	1	2
33	Nikolas Matinpalo D	16:53	0	2	2

12 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

0:31 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Tim Stützle F	22:54	7	7	14
22	Michael Amadio F	13:55	2	2	4
2	Artem Zub D	18:46	0	1	1
43	Tyler Kleven D	17:02	1	1	2

21 points this season

Goalies: Linus Ullmark (Projected) · Samuel Ersson #30 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (36)

Artemi Panarin · Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0
Adrian Kempe · Ryan Tanner, CC0
Alex Laferriere · Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0
Erik Haula · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mats Zuccarello · Lillehammer 2016 Youth Olympic Games from Norway, CC BY 2.0
Trevor Moore · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Scott Laughton · Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0
Joel Armia · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Samuel Helenius · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
Corey Perry · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Erik Gustafsson · Albin Olsson, CC BY-SA 3.0
Brandt Clarke · TheAHL, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mikey Anderson · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brian Dumoulin · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0
Drew Doughty · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0
Joel Edmundson · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcy Kuemper · Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0
Anton Forsberg · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tim Stützle · BKLuis, CC BY-SA 4.0
Claude Giroux · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ridly Greig · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Shane Pinto · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Amadio · Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0
Warren Foegele · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Dylan Cozens · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Drake Batherson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Nick Cousins · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Hayden Hodgson · m_kania, CC BY 2.0
Jake Sanderson · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Artem Zub · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Carter Yakemchuk · Hockeywithry, CC0
Jordan Spence · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tyler Kleven · Hockeywithry, CC BY 4.0
Samuel Ersson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Jonas Johansson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Linus Ullmark · Calle Eklund/ V-wolf, CC BY-SA 3.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Darcy Kuemper LOS

.890 save percentage

3.55 GAA · 2–3–1 · 6 starts

Linus Ullmark OTT

.945 save percentage

1.33 GAA · 7–1–0 · 8 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Darcy Kuemper · Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0
Linus Ullmark · Calle Eklund/ V-wolf, CC BY-SA 3.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Artemi PanarinLOS · LW · 6 G in 8 GP · 8 GP6637%2.73
Tim StützleOTT · C · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7532%3.08
Adrian KempeLOS · RW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3523%4.27
Drake BathersonOTT · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4422%4.49
Brandt ClarkeLOS · D · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2519%5.31
Stephen HallidayOTT · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3318%5.43
Alex LaferriereLOS · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2418%5.60
Scott LaughtonLOS · C · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1216%6.43
Claude GirouxOTT · RW · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2315%6.47
Shane PintoOTT · C · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2215%6.55

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (9)

Artemi Panarin · Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Stützle · BKLuis, CC BY-SA 4.0
Adrian Kempe · Ryan Tanner, CC0
Drake Batherson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Brandt Clarke · TheAHL, CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Laferriere · Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0
Scott Laughton · Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0
Claude Giroux · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Shane Pinto · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Los Angeles Kings vs Ottawa Senators?

Los Angeles Kings are the pick at home against Ottawa Senators: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Los Angeles Kings have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Ottawa Senators have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Los Angeles Kings sit 13th in the Western Conference, while Ottawa Senators sit 5th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Los Angeles Kings rate −0.18 and Ottawa Senators −0.10 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.08 goals to Ottawa Senators. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Los Angeles Kings 42% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Los Angeles Kings −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (6 projected).

Los Angeles Kings to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.