ICE Hockey League

Olimpija Ljubljana vs Vienna Capitals prediction

Olimpija Ljubljana8–5–0 · Home Vienna Capitals7–4–1 · Away07:15 PMOct 30

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%OLI61%OLI

Olimpija Ljubljana to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.63 · projected 3–2

Olimpija Ljubljana are the pick at home against Vienna Capitals: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

OLIOlimpija Ljubljana in 60'

51%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

VIEVienna Capitals in 60'

30%

Game flow

OLI 3.4 · VIE 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.7

P2 · 0.9–1.0

P3 · 1.4–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Olimpija Ljubljana61%1.63
Regulation result (60 minutes)Olimpija Ljubljana51%1.94
Puck lineVienna Capitals +1.564%1.55
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Olimpija Ljubljana

61%fair 1.63

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Olimpija Ljubljana

51%fair 1.94

Puck line

Vienna Capitals +1.5

64%fair 1.55

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. LawrenceOLI · 11 G in 13 GP · 13 GP11539%2.56
S. GersichVIE · 8 G in 11 GP · 11 GP8332%3.10
S. PeetersVIE · 5 G in 6 GP · 6 GP5331%3.19
N. MeyerOLI · 8 G in 13 GP · 13 GP8631%3.20
J. LiljaVIE · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7229%3.40
J. UrbasOLI · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7329%3.51
Z. PanceOLI · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3427%3.69
J. GregoireVIE · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5622%4.54
N. HalbertOLI · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3317%6.01
N. BailenVIE · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2413%7.47

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Olimpija Ljubljana vs Vienna Capitals?

Olimpija Ljubljana are the pick at home against Vienna Capitals: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Olimpija Ljubljana have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Vienna Capitals have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Olimpija Ljubljana sit 4th, while Vienna Capitals sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Olimpija Ljubljana rate +0.45 and Vienna Capitals 0.00 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.45 goals to Olimpija Ljubljana. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Olimpija Ljubljana win it in regulation only 51% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 61%.

Our own lines for this game: Olimpija Ljubljana −1.5 on the puck line (36%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (6.3 projected).

Olimpija Ljubljana to win, overtime and shootout included (61%). Projected score: 3–2.