ICE Hockey League

HK Olimpija vs Fehervar AV19 prediction

HK Olimpija8–4–0 · Home Fehervar AV194–6–3 · Away05:15 PM UTCOct 23

76%win chance incl. overtime24%

Our pick

76%OLI76%OLI

HK Olimpija to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.32 · projected 3–2

HK Olimpija are the pick to win at 76%, with a projected score of 3–2.

After 60 minutes

OLIHK Olimpija in 60'

65%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

FEHFehervar AV19 in 60'

17%

Game flow

OLI 3.7 · FEH 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.5

P2 · 1.3–1.0

P3 · 1.3–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)HK Olimpija76%1.32
Regulation result (60 minutes)HK Olimpija65%1.54
Puck lineHK Olimpija −1.551%1.95
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.18

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

HK Olimpija

76%fair 1.32

Regulation result (60 minutes)

HK Olimpija

65%fair 1.54

Puck line

HK Olimpija −1.5

51%fair 1.95

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.84

Both teams to score

Yes

85%fair 1.18

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. LawrenceOLI · 10 G in 12 GP · 12 GP10739%2.56
N. MeyerOLI · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8934%2.91
J. UrbasOLI · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6227%3.69
T. CheekFEH · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6326%3.87
M. CyrFEH · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3321%4.75
M. FarrenFEH · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3219%5.13
N. HalbertOLI · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3418%5.44
M. QuinceOLI · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3718%5.71
C. AmbrusFEH · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2217%5.88
B. ZlotyFEH · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3115%6.81

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win HK Olimpija vs Fehervar AV19?

HK Olimpija are the pick to win at 76%, with a projected score of 3–2.

HK Olimpija come into this one on a strong run, having won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 3.8 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Fehervar AV19 have managed just 1 win in their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 4.2 a game. The form gap is wide, and it lines up with the table: HK Olimpija sit 4th, Fehervar AV19 sit 13th.

The ratings reinforce the picture. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, HK Olimpija rate +0.53 goals per game against an average team and Fehervar AV19 rate −0.51, an edge of 1.04 goals to HK Olimpija. Home ice is worth about 0.37 goals a game in this league, which only adds to the home side's case. Fehervar AV19's route into the game is narrow given how much they have been conceding.

The one recent meeting went HK Olimpija's way, the latest finishing Fehervar AV19 2–6 HK Olimpija on 2026-09-19. The market reads it the same way: once the bookmaker margin is removed, the moneyline prices HK Olimpija at 78% across 9 bookmakers. About 18% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, so HK Olimpija win it in regulation only 65% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 76%.

That split matters for how the game is likely to be decided rather than who wins it. HK Olimpija's scoring rate over their last 5 and Fehervar AV19's defensive record over theirs both point to goals at both ends, which is why the projected score lands at 3–2 rather than a wider margin. The underdog's best case rests on a tight, low-scoring game that drags the favourite into overtime.

The projected 3–2 score leaves HK Olimpija −1.5 on the puck line coming in 51% of the time on our numbers, a near coin-flip against the line. The projected 6.1 goals sits above the 5.5 line, and the over lands 54%. Both lines are close enough that the moneyline, where HK Olimpija are priced at 78% against our 76%, is the cleaner read on this game.

HK Olimpija to win, overtime and shootout included, at 76%, with a projected score of 3–2.