ICE Hockey League

Ferencváros vs Val Pusteria prediction

Ferencváros5–5–1 · Home Val Pusteria7–3–1 · Away06:30 PMOct 24

44%win chance incl. overtime56%

Our pick

56%VAL56%VAL

Val Pusteria to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.78 · projected 2–3

Val Pusteria are the pick to win at Ferencvaros at 56%, with a projected score of 3–2.

After 60 minutes

FERFerencváros in 60'

34%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

VALVal Pusteria in 60'

45%

Game flow

FER 2.9 · VAL 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.8

P2 · 0.9–0.8

P3 · 1.2–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Val Pusteria56%1.78
Regulation result (60 minutes)Val Pusteria45%2.23
Puck lineFerencváros +1.569%1.44
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Val Pusteria

56%fair 1.78

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Val Pusteria

45%fair 2.23

Puck line

Ferencváros +1.5

69%fair 1.44

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.94

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. SavoieFER · 8 G in 11 GP · 11 GP8738%2.66
G. FitzgeraldVAL · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5427%3.66
G. FontaineVAL · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5323%4.27
D. SilyeFER · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4522%4.60
A. KestilaFER · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4321%4.69
C. BardreauVAL · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4221%4.80
A. LobisVAL · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3120%4.89
R. HeljankoFER · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3319%5.37
A. OsmanskiVAL · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2217%5.77
J. TammelaFER · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3017%5.81

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Ferencváros vs Val Pusteria?

Val Pusteria are the pick to win at Ferencvaros at 56%, with a projected score of 3–2.

Val Pusteria carry the edge on the road, and the model makes them 56% to win with 3–2 the most likely final score. The gap is not large, though: roughly 21% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, so Val Pusteria take it in regulation only 45% of the time, with overtime and the shootout accounting for the rest of their 56%.

The table supports the visitors, who sit 5th while Ferencvaros are 11th. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Ferencvaros rate −0.19 goals per game against an average team and Val Pusteria +0.13, an edge of 0.32 goals to Val Pusteria. Home ice is worth about 0.36 goals a game in this league, which keeps Ferencvaros in the game despite the ratings gap.

Recent form is mixed on both sides. Ferencvaros have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch, while Val Pusteria have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.8. The market reads the same way as the model: once the bookmaker margin is removed, 8 bookmakers price Val Pusteria at 59% on the moneyline.

The lean is real but thin, close to a coin flip, so it deserves care rather than confidence. Val Pusteria's higher rating and stronger table position are offset by Ferencvaros holding home ice, and the head-to-head outcome is projected to be decided by a single goal.

With the projected score at 3–2, Val Pusteria −1.5 on the puck line comes in 31% of the time on our numbers, so the one-goal margin works against that line. The over 5.5 goals lands 51% against a projected 6 goals, making the total a near split.

Val Pusteria to win, overtime and shootout included, at 56%, with a projected score of 3–2.