ICE Hockey League

Fehérvár AV19 vs Val Pusteria prediction

Fehérvár AV195–6–3 · Home Val Pusteria7–3–1 · Away04:00 PMOct 25

44%win chance incl. overtime56%

Our pick

56%VAL56%VAL

Val Pusteria to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 2–3

Val Pusteria are the pick at 56% to win on the road, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final against Fehérvár AV19.

After 60 minutes

FEHFehérvár AV19 in 60'

34%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

VALVal Pusteria in 60'

45%

Game flow

FEH 2.5 · VAL 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 0.9–1.0

P3 · 0.9–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Val Pusteria56%1.79
Regulation result (60 minutes)Val Pusteria45%2.21
Puck lineFehérvár AV19 +1.571%1.41
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Val Pusteria

56%fair 1.79

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Val Pusteria

45%fair 2.21

Puck line

Fehérvár AV19 +1.5

71%fair 1.41

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. CheekFEH · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7430%3.31
G. FitzgeraldVAL · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6530%3.35
G. FontaineVAL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5222%4.54
A. OsmanskiVAL · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3222%4.63
M. CyrFEH · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3321%4.75
C. BardreauVAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4220%5.10
M. FarrenFEH · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3220%5.11
T. PurdellerVAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4419%5.23
C. AmbrusFEH · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2117%5.89
B. ZlotyFEH · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3115%6.66

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Fehérvár AV19 vs Val Pusteria?

Val Pusteria are the pick at 56% to win on the road, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final against Fehérvár AV19.

Val Pusteria arrive as the fifth-placed side and the model's narrow favourite, but the edge is thin enough that Fehérvár AV19 can treat this as a live opportunity on home ice. The ratings explain the lean: adjusted for opponents, Val Pusteria sit at +0.16 goals per game against an average team while Fehérvár AV19 are at −0.45, a gap of 0.61 goals. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league, which trims that gap without erasing it.

Recent form points the same way. Val Pusteria have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch, while Fehérvár AV19 have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.4. The defensive numbers are the clearest split: Fehérvár AV19 are conceding more than they score, and Val Pusteria are doing the opposite.

The table and the head-to-head reinforce the visitors' case. Fehérvár AV19 sit 11th and Val Pusteria 5th, and the one recent meeting went Val Pusteria's way, 3–2 on 2026-10-04. In regulation the model gives Val Pusteria 45% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%, with a tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. That is why the overall win probability lands at 56% rather than something more comfortable.

The market's view of the winner is close to the model's: Val Pusteria are favoured, but only mildly, and the projections describe a one-goal game. Nothing here suggests a blowout, and the home side's case rests on the venue adjustment and on Val Pusteria's advantage being modest rather than dominant.

The projected 3–2 scoreline sits right on the 5.5 total goals line, and the model leans under at 55% with 5.6 projected. On the puck line, Val Pusteria −1.5 carries a 29% probability, which fits a one-goal projection: covering that margin would require the visitors to win by two or more, something the numbers do not support strongly.

Val Pusteria to win, overtime and shootout included, at 56%, with a projected 3–2 final against Fehérvár AV19.