DEL2

Starbulls Rosenheim vs Memmingen prediction

Starbulls Rosenheim4–7–0 · Home Memmingen5–4–2 · Away05:00 PMOct 25

57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%STA57%STA

Starbulls Rosenheim to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.76 · projected 3–2

Starbulls Rosenheim are the pick at home against Memmingen, with a 57% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

STAStarbulls Rosenheim in 60'

47%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

MEMMemmingen in 60'

34%

Game flow

STA 3.2 · MEM 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.9

P2 · 0.8–0.9

P3 · 1.3–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Starbulls Rosenheim57%1.76
Regulation result (60 minutes)Starbulls Rosenheim47%2.14
Puck lineMemmingen +1.569%1.45
Total goalsOver 5.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Starbulls Rosenheim

57%fair 1.76

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Starbulls Rosenheim

47%fair 2.14

Puck line

Memmingen +1.5

69%fair 1.45

Total goals

Over 5.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

S. FeserSTA · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5629%3.43
F. BrassardMEM · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6429%3.47
M. GennaroMEM · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6627%3.71
L. Zerter-GossageSTA · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3323%4.32
K. MastrodonatoSTA · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4323%4.34
J. BelleriveSTA · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4223%4.38
F. DietzSTA · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3322%4.57
M. LillichMEM · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3221%4.88
E. HomjakovsMEM · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3120%5.04
J. WatsonMEM · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3318%5.51

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Starbulls Rosenheim vs Memmingen?

Starbulls Rosenheim are the pick at home against Memmingen, with a 57% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Starbulls Rosenheim hold a modest edge in this DEL2 matchup, rated at −0.09 goals per game against an average opponent compared with Memmingen's −0.17, a gap of 0.09 goals. Home ice, worth about 0.33 goals a game in this league, widens that advantage further. The ratings and the venue point the same way, which is why the model gives the home side the majority of the probability despite the two teams being close in the table.

Form is not flattering for either side. Starbulls Rosenheim have won 2 of their last 5 while scoring 3.4 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch, and Memmingen have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 4.4. The visitors' defensive numbers over that run are the weaker of the two, and their scoring output is the lowest figure in the matchup. The table places Memmingen 11th and Starbulls Rosenheim 13th, so the standings give the away side a small cushion that the recent results do not reinforce.

The win probability is not a comfortable one. About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Starbulls Rosenheim take it in regulation only 47% of the time, with overtime and the shootout accounting for the rest of the 57%. That split matters: the pick covers the full 60 minutes plus the extra period, and a single goal either way could send it past regulation. The projected 3–2 scoreline fits a game that stays tight into the third.

Memmingen's case rests on the narrowness of the ratings gap and on the fact that the model still leaves them with a substantial share of the probability. Their recent goal differential is worse than Starbulls Rosenheim's, but the table position is better, and the two signals pull against each other. The market implied by our numbers treats this as close to a coin flip, so the lean toward the home team should be handled with care rather than treated as a strong position.

The projected 3–2 score keeps the margin under two goals, which works against Starbulls Rosenheim −1.5 on the puck line, priced at 31%. The 5.5 total goals line sits below the 6.2 projected goals, and the over carries 55%, so the model expects the game to clear that number. Both markets reflect a tight game with enough scoring to push past the total.

Starbulls Rosenheim to win, overtime and shootout included (57%), with a projected 3–2 score.