DEL2

Ravensburg vs Kassel prediction

Ravensburg6–4–0 · Home Kassel8–2–0 · Away06:30 PMOct 25

52%win chance incl. overtime48%

Our pick

52%RAV52%RAV

Ravensburg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.93 · projected 3–2

Ravensburg are the pick at home against Kassel: a 52% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

RAVRavensburg in 60'

42%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

KASKassel in 60'

38%

Game flow

RAV 3.0 · KAS 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.0

P2 · 1.0–1.3

P3 · 1.4–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ravensburg52%1.93
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ravensburg42%2.39
Puck lineKassel +1.573%1.37
Total goalsOver 5.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ravensburg

52%fair 1.93

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ravensburg

42%fair 2.39

Puck line

Kassel +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Over 5.5

55%fair 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. RassellRAV · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8838%2.63
C. WilkieKAS · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6330%3.38
N. LattaRAV · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5326%3.88
D. MieszkowskiKAS · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5426%3.90
B. O'DonnellKAS · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5426%3.92
R. CzarnikRAV · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4525%4.00
M. WhiteKAS · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4424%4.13
L. BraunKAS · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3222%4.48
M. StruthersRAV · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3321%4.81
N. KesslerRAV · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2117%6.04

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Ravensburg vs Kassel?

Ravensburg are the pick at home against Kassel: a 52% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Ravensburg have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch. Kassel have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Ravensburg sit 7th, while Kassel sit 2nd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Ravensburg rate −0.16 and Kassel +0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.23 goals to Kassel. Home ice is worth about 0.34 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Ravensburg win it in regulation only 42% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 52%.

Our own lines for this game: Ravensburg −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (6.2 projected).

Ravensburg to win, overtime and shootout included (52%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.