DEL2

Freiburg vs Bietigheim Steelers prediction

Freiburg4–5–2 · Home Bietigheim Steelers4–5–2 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%FRE53%FRE

Freiburg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.87 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Freiburg (53%) at home against Bietigheim Steelers, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

FREFreiburg in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BIEBietigheim Steelers in 60'

37%

Game flow

FRE 3.0 · BIE 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.8

P2 · 1.0–0.8

P3 · 1.1–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Freiburg53%1.87
Regulation result (60 minutes)Freiburg43%2.31
Puck lineBietigheim Steelers +1.572%1.39
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.87
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Freiburg

53%fair 1.87

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Freiburg

43%fair 2.31

Puck line

Bietigheim Steelers +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.87

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. FonstadBIE · 9 G in 10 GP · 10 GP91038%2.64
L. McCallumFRE · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6534%2.92
N. RitchieBIE · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4422%4.53
L. MuhlbauerFRE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3322%4.53
D. PlouffeFRE · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2420%5.09
D. CernyBIE · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4520%5.10
C. BillichFRE · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2119%5.18
N. LinsenmaierFRE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3319%5.27
J. DuganBIE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3517%5.88
S. RaabeBIE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3016%6.40

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Freiburg vs Bietigheim Steelers?

The numbers side with Freiburg (53%) at home against Bietigheim Steelers, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Bietigheim Steelers have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Freiburg sit 12th, while Bietigheim Steelers sit 11th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Freiburg rate −0.18 and Bietigheim Steelers −0.06 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.12 goals to Bietigheim Steelers. Home ice is worth about 0.33 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Freiburg 43% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Freiburg −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.1 projected).

Freiburg to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.