DEL2

Crimmitschau vs Regensburg prediction

Crimmitschau6–4–1 · Home Regensburg6–2–3 · Away05:00 PMOct 25

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%CRI53%CRI

Crimmitschau to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.89 · projected 3–2

Crimmitschau are narrow home favourites against Regensburg at 53%, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

CRICrimmitschau in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

REGRegensburg in 60'

37%

Game flow

CRI 3.0 · REG 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.9

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 1.1–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Crimmitschau53%1.89
Regulation result (60 minutes)Crimmitschau43%2.34
Puck lineRegensburg +1.573%1.38
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Crimmitschau

53%fair 1.89

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Crimmitschau

43%fair 2.34

Puck line

Regensburg +1.5

73%fair 1.38

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.93

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. BruneCRI · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7832%3.16
D. PeterREG · 6 G in 8 GP · 8 GP6329%3.40
T. WardREG · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4226%3.87
C. TrivinoREG · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6324%4.14
J. KarkiCRI · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4723%4.43
A. McCormickCRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4722%4.46
K. SlezakREG · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4322%4.48
C. AdamsCRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4322%4.63
L. WillCRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4522%4.65
S. PayeurREG · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3221%4.85

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Crimmitschau vs Regensburg?

Crimmitschau are narrow home favourites against Regensburg at 53%, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

Crimmitschau come into this one third in the table and have won 3 of their last 5, averaging 3.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded across that run. Regensburg sit fifth and have taken 2 of their last 5, at 2.8 scored and 2.6 allowed. The form lines point slightly toward the home side, but the gap is not wide enough to call this anything other than a tight matchup.

The ratings tell a different story once opponents are accounted for. Crimmitschau rate +0.22 goals per game against an average team, while Regensburg rate +0.37, an edge of 0.15 goals to the visitors. That edge is smaller than the roughly 0.33 goals home ice is worth in this league, which is precisely why the model lands on a home lean rather than a clear favourite.

The head-to-head picture on our numbers is that about 20% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, so Crimmitschau take it in regulation only 43% of the time, with overtime and the shootout filling out the 53%. Regensburg's stronger adjusted rating gives them a real case to take points here, and the table positions alone overstate the separation between the teams.

The market implication is a near coin flip. At 53%, Crimmitschau are favoured but not comfortably, and the projected 3–2 scoreline reflects how little separates the two sides once home ice and the adjusted ratings are balanced against each other. Treat the lean with care.

The projected 3–2 final sits under the 5.5 total, which our line prices with the over at 52% and 6 projected goals, so the model's own score and its total line pull in opposite directions. On the puck line, Crimmitschau −1.5 is given only 27%, consistent with a one-goal game that could easily need overtime. The 53% win probability covers regulation, overtime and the shootout, so the moneyline lean is thin and the spread offers little cushion.

Crimmitschau to win, overtime and shootout included, at 53%, with a projected 3–2 final.