DEL2

Freiburg vs Dresdner Eislöwen prediction

Freiburg4–5–2 · Home Dresdner Eislöwen6–5–0 · Away06:30 PMOct 25

50%win chance incl. overtime50%

Our pick

50%FRE50%FRE

Freiburg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.99 · projected 3–2

Freiburg are narrow home favourites at 50% against Dresdner Eislöwen, with the model projecting a 3–2 win.

After 60 minutes

FREFreiburg in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

DREDresdner Eislöwen in 60'

40%

Game flow

FRE 3.0 · DRE 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 1.3–1.0

P3 · 1.0–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Freiburg50%1.99
Regulation result (60 minutes)Freiburg40%2.48
Puck lineDresdner Eislöwen +1.574%1.35
Total goalsUnder 6.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Freiburg

50%fair 1.99

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Freiburg

40%fair 2.48

Puck line

Dresdner Eislöwen +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Under 6.5

55%fair 1.83

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. McCallumFRE · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6534%2.94
T. SpinkDRE · 6 G in 8 GP · 8 GP6428%3.53
T. AndresDRE · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5523%4.40
L. MuhlbauerFRE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3322%4.57
A. HelewkaDRE · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4720%4.99
D. PlouffeFRE · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2419%5.14
C. BillichFRE · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2119%5.22
N. LinsenmaierFRE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3319%5.31
T. KnoblochDRE · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2319%5.31
R. HendreschkeDRE · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2318%5.45

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Freiburg vs Dresdner Eislöwen?

Freiburg are narrow home favourites at 50% against Dresdner Eislöwen, with the model projecting a 3–2 win.

The model sees this as close to a coin flip, giving Freiburg a 50% chance at home once overtime and shootout are included, and projecting a 3–2 finish. That lean rests almost entirely on home ice, which is worth about 0.33 goals a game in this league. Strip that away and the ratings favour the visitors: adjusted for opponents faced, Freiburg rate −0.19 goals per game against an average team and Dresdner Eislöwen +0.13, an edge of 0.32 goals to the away side.

Recent form points the same direction. Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch, so they have been outscored on average. Dresdner Eislöwen have won 3 of their last 5 and averaged 4.0 goals a game while allowing 3.4, a much livelier attack that has carried them through a busier winning run.

The table separates them too: Freiburg sit 12th and Dresdner Eislöwen sit 6th, which fits the ratings gap rather than contradicting it. The underdog's case is straightforward — better adjusted numbers, better recent results and a higher position — and the home-ice allowance is what keeps Freiburg in front. Inside 60 minutes the model gives Freiburg 40% and a 20% chance of a tie after three periods, so a fair share of the favourite's edge comes after regulation.

The market picture is thin. Freiburg to win, overtime and shootout included, sits at 50%, so the model's preference for the home side is a lean rather than a conviction. With the ratings edge belonging to Dresdner Eislöwen and the venue edge belonging to Freiburg, the two roughly cancel, which is why the projected 3–2 scoreline is so tight.

The projected 3–2 final lands well under the 6.5 total, and the model puts the under at 55% against a 6.2 projected goals figure. On the puck line, Freiburg −1.5 comes in at just 26%, consistent with a one-goal projection that leaves little room for a two-goal home win. Both lines reflect the same close game the ratings and home-ice numbers describe.

Freiburg to win, overtime and shootout included, at 50%, with a projected score of 3–2.