DEL2

Düsseldorfer EG vs Kassel prediction

Düsseldorfer EG10–0–0 · Home Kassel8–3–0 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

64%win chance incl. overtime36%

Our pick

64%DÜS64%DÜS

Düsseldorfer EG to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.56 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Düsseldorfer EG (64%) at home against Kassel, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

DÜSDüsseldorfer EG in 60'

54%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

KASKassel in 60'

27%

Game flow

DÜS 3.4 · KAS 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.7

P2 · 1.1–1.2

P3 · 1.2–0.5

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Düsseldorfer EG64%1.56
Regulation result (60 minutes)Düsseldorfer EG54%1.84
Puck lineKassel +1.562%1.61
Total goalsOver 5.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Düsseldorfer EG

64%fair 1.56

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Düsseldorfer EG

54%fair 1.84

Puck line

Kassel +1.5

62%fair 1.61

Total goals

Over 5.5

53%fair 1.90

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. MackinDÜS · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8637%2.69
C. TurnbullDÜS · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8936%2.76
V. JarvelainenDÜS · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5426%3.79
C. WilkieKAS · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6325%4.02
L. BraunKAS · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4323%4.28
D. MieszkowskiKAS · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5421%4.66
B. O'DonnellKAS · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5421%4.68
L. NiederbergerDÜS · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4020%4.89
M. WhiteKAS · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4420%4.93
E. BradfordDÜS · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3819%5.30

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Düsseldorfer EG vs Kassel?

The numbers side with Düsseldorfer EG (64%) at home against Kassel, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Düsseldorfer EG have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. Kassel have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Düsseldorfer EG sit 1st, while Kassel sit 4th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Düsseldorfer EG rate +0.49 and Kassel −0.08 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.56 goals to Düsseldorfer EG. Home ice is worth about 0.33 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Düsseldorfer EG 54% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Düsseldorfer EG −1.5 on the puck line (38%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 53% (6 projected).

Düsseldorfer EG to win, overtime and shootout included (64%). Projected score: 3–2.