DEL2

Regensburg vs Memmingen prediction

Regensburg5–2–3 · Home Memmingen4–4–2 · Away08:00 PMOct 30

64%win chance incl. overtime36%

Our pick

64%REG64%REG

Regensburg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.56 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Regensburg 64% favourites at home against Memmingen, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

REGRegensburg in 60'

54%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

MEMMemmingen in 60'

27%

Game flow

REG 3.4 · MEM 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–1.0

P2 · 1.2–0.8

P3 · 1.1–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Regensburg64%1.56
Regulation result (60 minutes)Regensburg54%1.86
Puck lineMemmingen +1.562%1.60
Total goalsOver 5.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Regensburg

64%fair 1.56

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Regensburg

54%fair 1.86

Puck line

Memmingen +1.5

62%fair 1.60

Total goals

Over 5.5

53%fair 1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. PeterREG · 6 G in 8 GP · 8 GP6334%2.94
T. WardREG · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4230%3.33
C. TrivinoREG · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6328%3.56
F. BrassardMEM · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6426%3.82
K. SlezakREG · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4326%3.85
M. GennaroMEM · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6624%4.09
S. PayeurREG · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3224%4.16
M. LillichMEM · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3219%5.40
E. HomjakovsMEM · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3118%5.58
J. WatsonMEM · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3316%6.12

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Regensburg vs Memmingen?

Our model makes Regensburg 64% favourites at home against Memmingen, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Regensburg have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Memmingen have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 4.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Regensburg sit 5th, while Memmingen sit 11th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Regensburg rate +0.37 and Memmingen −0.17 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.54 goals to Regensburg. Home ice is worth about 0.33 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Regensburg 54% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Regensburg −1.5 on the puck line (38%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 53% (6 projected).

Regensburg to win, overtime and shootout included (64%). Projected score: 3–2.