DEL2

Lausitzer Füchse vs Ravensburg prediction

Lausitzer Füchse4–5–2 · Home Ravensburg7–4–0 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%LAU53%LAU

Lausitzer Füchse to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.87 · projected 3–2

Lausitzer Füchse are the pick at home against Ravensburg: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LAULausitzer Füchse in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

RAVRavensburg in 60'

37%

Game flow

LAU 3.2 · RAV 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.7

P2 · 1.3–1.2

P3 · 0.9–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Lausitzer Füchse53%1.87
Regulation result (60 minutes)Lausitzer Füchse44%2.30
Puck lineRavensburg +1.571%1.40
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.87
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Lausitzer Füchse

53%fair 1.87

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Lausitzer Füchse

44%fair 2.30

Puck line

Ravensburg +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.87

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. RassellRAV · 9 G in 11 GP · 11 GP9537%2.67
J. Schmidt-SvejstrupLAU · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6734%2.96
B. LemosLAU · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4425%4.05
N. LattaRAV · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5323%4.37
J. BrodaLAU · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3322%4.54
R. CzarnikRAV · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4422%4.55
C. TheodoreLAU · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2220%5.13
M. StruthersRAV · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3418%5.48
L. ScheidlLAU · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2218%5.53
S. SezemskyRAV · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2415%6.88

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Lausitzer Füchse vs Ravensburg?

Lausitzer Füchse are the pick at home against Ravensburg: a 53% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Lausitzer Füchse have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch. Ravensburg have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Lausitzer Füchse sit 9th, while Ravensburg sit 7th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Lausitzer Füchse rate −0.18 and Ravensburg −0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.12 goals to Ravensburg. Home ice is worth about 0.33 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Lausitzer Füchse win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Lausitzer Füchse −1.5 on the puck line (29%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (6.3 projected).

Lausitzer Füchse to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.