National League

Ambrì-Piotta vs Biel prediction

Ambrì-Piotta9–5–1 · Home Biel6–8–1 · Away07:45 PMOct 27

66%win chance incl. overtime34%

Our pick

66%AMB66%AMB

Ambrì-Piotta to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.51 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Ambrì-Piotta 66% favourites at home against Biel, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

AMBAmbrì-Piotta in 60'

54%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BIEBiel in 60'

25%

Game flow

AMB 3.3 · BIE 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.8

P2 · 0.9–1.1

P3 · 1.3–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ambrì-Piotta66%1.51
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ambrì-Piotta54%1.84
Puck lineBiel +1.559%1.69
Total goalsUnder 6.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ambrì-Piotta

66%fair 1.51

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ambrì-Piotta

54%fair 1.84

Puck line

Biel +1.5

59%fair 1.69

Total goals

Under 6.5

55%fair 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. JolyAMB · 11 G in 15 GP · 15 GP11741%2.43
R. JarventieAMB · 9 G in 14 GP · 14 GP91136%2.77
J. SkinnerBIE · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7424%4.14
T. De LucaAMB · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4322%4.55
L. AnderssonBIE · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5722%4.58
F. HoferBIE · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5322%4.61
I. PestoniAMB · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2419%5.17
N. SchnarrAMB · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4819%5.19
J. NeuenschwanderBIE · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3419%5.38
G. HaasBIE · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4116%6.23

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Ambrì-Piotta vs Biel?

Our model makes Ambrì-Piotta 66% favourites at home against Biel, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Ambrì-Piotta have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Biel have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Ambrì-Piotta sit 2nd, while Biel sit 11th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Ambrì-Piotta rate +0.08 and Biel −0.08 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.16 goals to Ambrì-Piotta. Home ice is worth about 0.31 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Ambrì-Piotta 54% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Ambrì-Piotta 1, Biel 0); the latest finished Biel 3–4 Ambrì-Piotta on 2026-09-22.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Ambrì-Piotta at 70% on the moneyline across 5 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Ambrì-Piotta −1.5 on the puck line comes in 41% of the time on our numbers, and the under 6.5 goals lands 55% against a projected 6.3 goals.

Ambrì-Piotta to win, overtime and shootout included (66%). Projected score: 3–2.