National League

Bern vs ZSC Lions prediction

Bern7–3–3 · Home ZSC Lions13–1–0 · Away07:45 PMOct 27

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Our pick

51%ZSC51%ZSC

ZSC Lions to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.97 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with ZSC Lions (51%) on the road against Bern, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

BERBern in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

ZSCZSC Lions in 60'

41%

Game flow

BER 2.9 · ZSC 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.9

P2 · 1.1–1.1

P3 · 1.1–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)ZSC Lions51%1.97
Regulation result (60 minutes)ZSC Lions41%2.44
Puck lineBern +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

ZSC Lions

51%fair 1.97

Regulation result (60 minutes)

ZSC Lions

41%fair 2.44

Puck line

Bern +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.93

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

S. KnakZSC · 10 G in 14 GP · 14 GP10430%3.30
R. AbolsBER · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6628%3.58
W. MerelaBER · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4422%4.46
E. BemstromBER · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4121%4.87
D. MalginZSC · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5619%5.16
D. RohrbachBER · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4018%5.49
C. BaltisbergerZSC · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4317%5.78
J. FrodenZSC · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4317%5.88
R. DionicioBER · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3317%5.96
M. LehtonenZSC · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3615%6.56

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Bern vs ZSC Lions?

The numbers side with ZSC Lions (51%) on the road against Bern, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Bern have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch. ZSC Lions have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Bern sit 5th, while ZSC Lions sit 1st.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Bern rate +0.19 and ZSC Lions +0.53 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.34 goals to ZSC Lions. Home ice is worth about 0.29 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives ZSC Lions 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Bern 0, ZSC Lions 1); the latest finished ZSC Lions 5–3 Bern on 2026-09-15.

Our own lines for this game: ZSC Lions −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

ZSC Lions to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.