SHL

Djurgården vs HV71 prediction

Djurgården4–5–2 · Home HV713–5–3 · Away07:30 PMOct 29

55%win chance incl. overtime45%

Our pick

55%DJU55%DJU

Djurgården to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.82 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Djurgarden 55% favourites at home against HV 71, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

DJUDjurgården in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

HVHV71 in 60'

35%

Game flow

DJU 2.7 · HV 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.7

P2 · 1.0–0.7

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Djurgården55%1.82
Regulation result (60 minutes)Djurgården44%2.25
Puck lineHV71 +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 5.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Djurgården

55%fair 1.82

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Djurgården

44%fair 2.25

Puck line

HV71 +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 5.5

59%fair 1.69

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. MysakHV · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7429%3.50
C. HudonDJU · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4224%4.24
J. AngHV · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4221%4.88
O. WahlstromDJU · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3220%5.09
S. HartmannDJU · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2319%5.25
N. PasicHV · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4219%5.27
J. KloosHV · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3319%5.28
J. SnivelyDJU · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2316%6.11
P. RegendaHV · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3416%6.27
L. VejdemoDJU · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2315%6.58

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Djurgården vs HV71?

Our model makes Djurgarden 55% favourites at home against HV 71, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Djurgarden have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. HV 71 have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Djurgarden sit 12th, while HV 71 sit 13th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Djurgarden rate −0.35 and HV 71 −0.25 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.10 goals to HV 71. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Djurgarden win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 55%.

Our own lines for this game: Djurgarden −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 59% (5.4 projected).

Djurgarden to win, overtime and shootout included (55%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.