NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Nashville Predators prediction

Pittsburgh Penguins4–6–1 · Home Nashville Predators3–3–3 · Away07:00 PMOct 24

56%win chance incl. overtime44%

Our pick

56%PIT56%PIT

Pittsburgh Penguins to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 3–2

Pittsburgh Penguins are the pick at home against Nashville Predators, with a 56% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

PITPittsburgh Penguins in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

NASNashville Predators in 60'

34%

Game flow

PIT 3.2 · NAS 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.0

P2 · 1.3–0.9

P3 · 1.0–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Pittsburgh Penguins56%1.79
Regulation result (60 minutes)Pittsburgh Penguins44%2.25
Puck lineNashville Predators +1.567%1.49
Total goalsUnder 6.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Pittsburgh Penguins

56%fair 1.79

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Pittsburgh Penguins

44%fair 2.25

Puck line

Nashville Predators +1.5

67%fair 1.49

Total goals

Under 6.5

52%fair 1.93

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Pittsburgh Penguins

Last game: Oct 22

AS37SilovsProjected

TN18NovakLW SC87CrosbyC RR67RakellRW

1st line

10:05 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Tommy Novak LW	16:37	3	5	8
87	Sidney Crosby C	16:39	3	3	6
67	Rickard Rakell RW	19:06	1	3	4

18 points this season

AK62KuzmenkoLW BL46LizotteC

2McGroartyRW

2nd line

9:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	A	P
62	Andrei Kuzmenko LW	14:46	1	1
46	Blake Lizotte C	16:30	4	4
2	Rutger McGroarty RW	15:05	0	0

5 points this season

NR14RobertsonLW CD19DewarC ES25SöderblomRW

3rd line

8:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
14	Nick Robertson LW	14:06	6	0	6
19	Connor Dewar C	16:42	1	3	4
25	Elmer Söderblom RW	10:35	0	0	0

10 points this season

HL22LapierreLW EM71MalkinC VK41KoivunenRW

4th line

7:16 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Hendrix Lapierre LW	10:54	2	3	5
71	Evgeni Malkin C	12:54	6	3	9
41	Ville Koivunen RW	13:26	1	3	4

18 points this season

EK65KarlssonD SS24StastneyD

1st pair

13:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
65	Erik Karlsson D	24:09	1	10	11
24	Spencer Stastney D	18:23	0	2	2

13 points this season

KK6KorczakD DC72CarlileD

2nd pair

12:13 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Kaedan Korczak D	19:22	0	5	5
72	Declan Carlile D	19:13	3	2	5

10 points this season

KL58LetangD IS7SolovyovD

3rd pair

10:57 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
58	Kris Letang D	16:55	0	5	5
7	Ilya Solovyov D	16:38	0	0	0

5 points this season

RR67RakellF SC87CrosbyF TN18NovakF

VK41KoivunenF EK65KarlssonD

Power play unit 1

2:37 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
67	Rickard Rakell F	19:06	1	3	4
87	Sidney Crosby F	16:39	3	3	6
18	Tommy Novak F	16:37	3	5	8
41	Ville Koivunen F	13:26	1	3	4
65	Erik Karlsson D	24:09	1	10	11

33 points this season

2McGroartyF AK62KuzmenkoF EM71MalkinF

HL22LapierreF KL58LetangD

Power play unit 2

1:05 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
2	Rutger McGroarty F	15:05	0	0	0
62	Andrei Kuzmenko F	14:46	0	1	1
71	Evgeni Malkin F	12:54	6	3	9
22	Hendrix Lapierre F	10:54	2	3	5
58	Kris Letang D	16:55	0	5	5

20 points this season

CD19DewarF BL46LizotteF

KK6KorczakD DC72CarlileD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:37 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
19	Connor Dewar F	16:42	1	3	4
46	Blake Lizotte F	16:30	0	4	4
6	Kaedan Korczak D	19:22	0	5	5
72	Declan Carlile D	19:13	3	2	5

18 points this season

RR67RakellF NR14RobertsonF

EK65KarlssonD IS7SolovyovD

Penalty kill unit 2

1:12 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
67	Rickard Rakell F	19:06	1	3	4
14	Nick Robertson F	14:06	6	0	6
65	Erik Karlsson D	24:09	1	10	11
7	Ilya Solovyov D	16:38	0	0	0

21 points this season

Goalies: Arturs Silovs #37 (Projected) · Sergei Murashov #1 (Backup)

Nashville Predators

Last game: Oct 22

74SarosProjected

FF9ForsbergLW RO90O'ReillyC SS91StamkosRW

1st line

9:10 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
9	Filip Forsberg LW	17:30	1	7	8
90	Ryan O'Reilly C	16:35	4	3	7
91	Steven Stamkos RW	14:04	4	5	9

24 points this season

MB22BourqueLW AK14KerfootC JM81MarchessaultRW

2nd line

9:37 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Mavrik Bourque LW	14:36	0	1	1
14	Alexander Kerfoot C	16:59	1	2	3
81	Jonathan Marchessault RW	16:10	1	1	2

6 points this season

RS49SchaeferLW JD18DruryC AE84EdströmRW

3rd line

6:49 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
49	Reid Schaefer LW	11:36	0	0	0
18	Jack Drury C	17:27	1	1	2
84	Adam Edström RW	16:58	4	0	4

6 points this season

NH21HöglanderLW RC79ColtonC MW71WoodRW

4th line

2:35 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Nils Höglander LW	12:12	3	0	3
79	Ross Colton C	11:19	1	1	2
71	Matthew Wood RW	11:24	1	1	2

7 points this season

RJ59JosiD AW2WilsbyD

1st pair

19:24 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
59	Roman Josi D	24:29	1	8	9
2	Adam Wilsby D	22:09	0	4	4

13 points this season

NH41HagueD JS3StrubleD

2nd pair

17:17 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
41	Nicolas Hague D	20:13	0	1	1
3	Jayden Struble D	18:07	0	0	0

1 points this season

BS76SkjeiD IL46LyubushkinD

3rd pair

13:59 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
76	Brady Skjei D	17:46	0	2	2
46	Ilya Lyubushkin D	16:11	0	0	0

2 points this season

FF9ForsbergF RO90O'ReillyF JM81MarchessaultF

SS91StamkosF RJ59JosiD

Power play unit 1

0:59 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
9	Filip Forsberg F	17:30	1	7	8
90	Ryan O'Reilly F	16:35	4	3	7
81	Jonathan Marchessault F	16:10	1	1	2
91	Steven Stamkos F	14:04	4	5	9
59	Roman Josi D	24:29	1	8	9

35 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

JD18DruryF AK14KerfootF

AW2WilsbyD BS76SkjeiD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:24 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Jack Drury F	17:27	1	1	2
14	Alexander Kerfoot F	16:59	1	2	3
2	Adam Wilsby D	22:09	0	4	4
76	Brady Skjei D	17:46	0	2	2

11 points this season

AE84EdströmF RO90O'ReillyF

RJ59JosiD IL46LyubushkinD

Penalty kill unit 2

1:10 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
84	Adam Edström F	16:58	4	0	4
90	Ryan O'Reilly F	16:35	4	3	7
59	Roman Josi D	24:29	1	8	9
46	Ilya Lyubushkin D	16:11	0	0	0

20 points this season

Goalies: Juuse Saros #74 (Projected) · Justus Annunen #29 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (4)

Rutger McGroarty · Martin Rulsch , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Sergei Murashov · Gri3720, CC BY-SA 4.0
Justus Annunen · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Juuse Saros · Coordinator50, CC BY 4.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Arturs Silovs PIT

.885 save percentage

3.01 GAA · 4–3–0 · 2 shutouts · 7 starts

Juuse Saros NAS

.906 save percentage

2.82 GAA · 3–2–2 · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Juuse Saros · Coordinator50, CC BY 4.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Evgeni MalkinPIT · C · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6430%3.28
Nick RobertsonPIT · LW · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6330%3.29
Adam EdströmNAS · C · 4 G in 6 GP · 6 GP4229%3.49
Ryan O'ReillyNAS · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4427%3.74
Steven StamkosNAS · C · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4424%4.09
Bryan RustPIT · RW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3323%4.43
Sidney CrosbyPIT · C · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3420%5.01
Nils HöglanderNAS · LW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3020%5.02
Declan CarlilePIT · D · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3119%5.37
Alexander KerfootNAS · C · 1 G in 6 GP · 6 GP1113%7.80

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Pittsburgh Penguins vs Nashville Predators?

Pittsburgh Penguins are the pick at home against Nashville Predators, with a 56% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Both teams arrive in similar form, having each won 1 of their last 5, but the shape of those games differs. Pittsburgh Penguins have scored 3.0 and allowed 4.2 goals a game over that stretch, while Nashville Predators have managed 2.2 goals a game and conceded 3.8. Neither record is convincing, yet Pittsburgh Penguins carry more scoring punch into the matchup.

The table offers little separation either, with Pittsburgh Penguins 14th in the Eastern Conference and Nashville Predators 11th in the Western Conference. The ratings, adjusted for opponents faced, lean slightly toward the home side: Pittsburgh Penguins sit at −0.08 goals per game against an average team and Nashville Predators at −0.15, an edge of 0.08 goals to Pittsburgh Penguins. Add home ice, worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league, and the case for the home side firms up.

In regulation the model gives Pittsburgh Penguins 44% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 22%, with a tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The moneyline market, once the bookmaker margin is removed, prices Pittsburgh Penguins at 56% across 9 bookmakers, matching the model's view. That consensus makes Pittsburgh Penguins the favourite, though the margin is thin enough that the lean deserves caution.

The projected 3–2 score implies a one-goal game, which works against Pittsburgh Penguins −1.5 on the puck line: our numbers give that line just 33%. The projected 6.3 goals sits below the 6.5 line, and the under lands 52% against it. Both lines are close calls, so the puck line and the total offer little margin for error.

Pittsburgh Penguins to win, overtime and shootout included, at 56%, with a projected 3–2 score.