NHL

Minnesota Wild vs New York Islanders prediction

Minnesota Wild6–3–2 · Home New York Islanders5–3–2 · Away08:00 PMOct 29

55%win chance incl. overtime45%

Our pick

55%MIN55%MIN

Minnesota Wild to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.82 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Minnesota Wild 55% favourites at home against New York Islanders, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

MINMinnesota Wild in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

NEWNew York Islanders in 60'

35%

Game flow

MIN 2.8 · NEW 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.9

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 0.8–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Minnesota Wild55%1.82
Regulation result (60 minutes)Minnesota Wild44%2.27
Puck lineNew York Islanders +1.572%1.39
Total goalsUnder 5.556%1.80
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Minnesota Wild

55%fair 1.82

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Minnesota Wild

44%fair 2.27

Puck line

New York Islanders +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Under 5.5

56%fair 1.80

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Minnesota Wild

Last game: Oct 22

JW30WallstedtProjected

MB12BoldyLW JE14EkC KK97KaprizovRW

1st line

11:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Matt Boldy LW	25:05	5	4	9
14	Joel Eriksson Ek C	23:14	2	4	6
97	Kirill Kaprizov RW	24:54	11	6	17

32 points this season

BC20ColemanLW RH38HartmanC BB10BrinkRW

2nd line

8:02 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Blake Coleman LW	14:23	2	1	3
38	Ryan Hartman C	13:15	1	0	1
10	Bobby Brink RW	13:57	0	3	3

7 points this season

RL61LorenzLW YT13TreninC DY22YurovRW

3rd line

6:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
61	Rieger Lorenz LW	8:40	0	0	0
13	Yakov Trenin C	10:49	0	2	2
22	Danila Yurov RW	19:27	4	0	4

6 points this season

NS78SturmLW MM47McCarronC

19PitlickRW

4th line

5:35 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
78	Nico Sturm LW	9:52	0	1	1
47	Michael McCarron C	11:28	1	4	5
19	Tyler Pitlick RW	6:44	0	0	0

6 points this season

QH43HughesD JB25BrodinD

1st pair

12:43 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
43	Quinn Hughes D	31:04	2	10	12
25	Jonas Brodin D	19:06	0	3	3

15 points this season

JS46SpurgeonD DH48HuntD

2nd pair

7:32 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
46	Jared Spurgeon D	19:19	1	4	5
48	Daemon Hunt D	16:09	0	0	0

5 points this season

ZB24BogosianD OM3MäättäD

3rd pair

7:44 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Zach Bogosian D	14:18	0	0	0
3	Olli Määttä D	14:16	0	2	2

2 points this season

MB12BoldyF KK97KaprizovF JE14EkF

DY22YurovF QH43HughesD

Power play unit 1

5:19 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Matt Boldy F	25:05	5	4	9
97	Kirill Kaprizov F	24:54	11	6	17
14	Joel Eriksson Ek F	23:14	2	4	6
22	Danila Yurov F	19:27	4	0	4
43	Quinn Hughes D	31:04	2	10	12

48 points this season

BC20ColemanF BB10BrinkF RH38HartmanF

JS46SpurgeonD DH48HuntD

Power play unit 2

1:26 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Blake Coleman F	14:23	2	1	3
10	Bobby Brink F	13:57	0	3	3
38	Ryan Hartman F	13:15	1	0	1
46	Jared Spurgeon D	19:19	1	4	5
48	Daemon Hunt D	16:09	0	0	0

12 points this season

DY22YurovF YT13TreninF

ZB24BogosianD OM3MäättäD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:18 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Danila Yurov F	19:27	4	0	4
13	Yakov Trenin F	10:49	0	2	2
24	Zach Bogosian D	14:18	0	0	0
3	Olli Määttä D	14:16	0	2	2

8 points this season

MM47McCarronF NS78SturmF

JS46SpurgeonD JB25BrodinD

Penalty kill unit 2

1:15 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
47	Michael McCarron F	11:28	1	4	5
78	Nico Sturm F	9:52	0	1	1
46	Jared Spurgeon D	19:19	1	4	5
25	Jonas Brodin D	19:06	0	3	3

14 points this season

Goalies: Jesper Wallstedt #30 (Projected) · Calvin Pickard #31 (Backup)

New York Islanders

Last game: Oct 22

30SorokinProjected

KP21PalmieriLW BH14HorvatC SH92HolmströmRW

1st line

12:14 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Kyle Palmieri LW	16:45	2	1	3
14	Bo Horvat C	21:33	5	4	9
92	Simon Holmström RW	20:50	4	1	5

17 points this season

EH51HeinemanLW BS10SchennC VE38EklundRW

2nd line

12:22 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
51	Emil Heineman LW	17:05	2	2	4
10	Brayden Schenn C	17:17	2	4	6
38	Victor Eklund RW	17:44	3	1	4

14 points this season

AD11DuclairLW JP44PageauC OP81PalátRW

3rd line

10:27 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
11	Anthony Duclair LW	14:43	2	1	3
44	Jean-Gabriel Pageau C	16:23	1	4	5
81	Ondřej Palát RW	12:53	2	1	3

11 points this season

KM32MacLeanLW CC53CizikasC MC26ChaffeeRW

4th line

7:00 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
32	Kyle MacLean LW	8:03	0	0	0
53	Casey Cizikas C	10:32	1	1	2
26	Mitchell Chaffee RW	9:06	0	0	0

2 points this season

MS48SchaeferD LS8StanleyD

1st pair

15:33 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
48	Matthew Schaefer D	29:24	1	7	8
8	Logan Stanley D	20:02	0	5	5

13 points this season

AP3PelechD RP6PulockD

2nd pair

11:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
3	Adam Pelech D	20:03	0	2	2
6	Ryan Pulock D	18:32	0	0	0

2 points this season

77DeAngeloD MK4KesselD

3rd pair

10:16 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Tony DeAngelo D	18:10	0	0	0
4	Matthew Kessel D	13:30	0	2	2

2 points this season

BH14HorvatF SH92HolmströmF BS10SchennF

KP21PalmieriF MS48SchaeferD

Power play unit 1

3:02 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
14	Bo Horvat F	21:33	5	4	9
92	Simon Holmström F	20:50	4	1	5
10	Brayden Schenn F	17:17	2	4	6
21	Kyle Palmieri F	16:45	2	1	3
48	Matthew Schaefer D	29:24	1	7	8

31 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

SH92HolmströmF JP44PageauF

AP3PelechD RP6PulockD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:04 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
92	Simon Holmström F	20:50	4	1	5
44	Jean-Gabriel Pageau F	16:23	1	4	5
3	Adam Pelech D	20:03	0	2	2
6	Ryan Pulock D	18:32	0	0	0

12 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Ilya Sorokin #30 (Projected) · Semyon Varlamov #40 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (5)

Tyler Pitlick · Connor Mah, CC BY-SA 3.0
Calvin Pickard · ArtBrom, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tony DeAngelo · 5of7, CC BY-SA 2.0
Semyon Varlamov · Gary McCabe, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ilya Sorokin · Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Jesper Wallstedt MIN

.915 save percentage

2.19 GAA · 6–2–2 · 10 starts

Ilya Sorokin NEW

.934 save percentage

1.72 GAA · 5–2–0 · 1 shutout · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Ilya Sorokin · Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Kirill KaprizovMIN · LW · 11 G in 11 GP · 11 GP11843%2.33
Matt BoldyMIN · LW · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5626%3.85
Danila YurovMIN · RW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4224%4.18
Bo HorvatNEW · C · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5323%4.33
Simon HolmströmNEW · RW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4322%4.59
Victor EklundNEW · RW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3218%5.58
Joel Eriksson EkMIN · C · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2315%6.52
Anthony DuclairNEW · LW · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2215%6.54
Maxim ShabanovMIN · RW · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2114%7.16
Matias MaccelliNEW · LW · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2314%7.34

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Minnesota Wild vs New York Islanders?

Our model makes Minnesota Wild 55% favourites at home against New York Islanders, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Minnesota Wild have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. New York Islanders have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Minnesota Wild sit 5th in the Western Conference, while New York Islanders sit 8th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Minnesota Wild rate +0.19 and New York Islanders +0.14 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.05 goals to Minnesota Wild. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Minnesota Wild win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 55%.

Our own lines for this game: Minnesota Wild −1.5 on the puck line (28%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 56% (5.6 projected).

Minnesota Wild to win, overtime and shootout included (55%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.