NHL

Dallas Stars vs Montreal Canadiens prediction

Dallas Stars6–3–1 · Home Montreal Canadiens5–3–2 · Away08:00 PMOct 29

60%win chance incl. overtime40%

Our pick

60%DAL60%DAL

Dallas Stars to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.67 · projected 3–2

Dallas Stars are the pick at home against Montreal Canadiens: a 60% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

DALDallas Stars in 60'

49%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

MONMontreal Canadiens in 60'

30%

Game flow

DAL 3.0 · MON 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.9

P2 · 1.1–1.0

P3 · 1.1–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Dallas Stars60%1.67
Regulation result (60 minutes)Dallas Stars49%2.05
Puck lineMontreal Canadiens +1.568%1.48
Total goalsUnder 5.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Dallas Stars

60%fair 1.67

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Dallas Stars

49%fair 2.05

Puck line

Montreal Canadiens +1.5

68%fair 1.48

Total goals

Under 5.5

56%fair 1.79

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Dallas Stars

Last game: Oct 22

29OettingerProjected

SS18SteelLW WJ53JohnstonC MR96RantanenRW

1st line

7:57 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
18	Sam Steel LW	16:09	1	2	3
53	Wyatt Johnston C	19:55	1	5	6
96	Mikko Rantanen RW	20:09	5	7	12

21 points this season

JR21RobertsonLW RH24HintzC TS91SeguinRW

2nd line

7:00 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Jason Robertson LW	21:42	3	7	10
24	Roope Hintz C	15:20	5	3	8
91	Tyler Seguin RW	15:09	2	2	4

22 points this season

JB14BennLW JH49HryckowianC AH25HyryRW

3rd line

7:32 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
14	Jamie Benn LW	13:22	1	1	2
49	Justin Hryckowian C	17:22	0	0	0
25	Arttu Hyry RW	16:11	3	0	3

5 points this season

JK22KivirantaLW CB15BlackwellC RF12FaksaRW

4th line

4:29 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Joel Kiviranta LW	10:02	1	0	1
15	Colin Blackwell C	9:26	0	0	0
12	Radek Faksa RW	7:23	0	1	1

2 points this season

MH4HeiskanenD TH55HarleyD

1st pair

14:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
4	Miro Heiskanen D	29:20	3	4	7
55	Thomas Harley D	28:27	0	3	3

10 points this season

LB6BichselD TM57MyersD

2nd pair

7:57 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Lian Bichsel D	17:47	0	0	0
57	Tyler Myers D	15:44	0	0	0

0 points this season

NL5LundkvistD KC20CapobiancoD

3rd pair

6:37 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
5	Nils Lundkvist D	16:47	0	2	2
20	Kyle Capobianco D	12:27	0	0	0

2 points this season

JR21RobertsonF MR96RantanenF WJ53JohnstonF

RH24HintzF MH4HeiskanenD

Power play unit 1

2:06 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
21	Jason Robertson F	21:42	3	7	10
96	Mikko Rantanen F	20:09	5	7	12
53	Wyatt Johnston F	19:55	1	5	6
24	Roope Hintz F	15:20	5	3	8
4	Miro Heiskanen D	29:20	3	4	7

43 points this season

Power play unit 2: No such unit in that game.

JK22KivirantaF RF12FaksaF

MH4HeiskanenD TH55HarleyD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:17 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Joel Kiviranta F	10:02	1	0	1
12	Radek Faksa F	7:23	0	1	1
4	Miro Heiskanen D	29:20	3	4	7
55	Thomas Harley D	28:27	0	3	3

12 points this season

AH25HyryF SS18SteelF

LB6BichselD TM57MyersD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:57 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
25	Arttu Hyry F	16:11	3	0	3
18	Sam Steel F	16:09	1	2	3
6	Lian Bichsel D	17:47	0	0	0
57	Tyler Myers D	15:44	0	0	0

6 points this season

Goalies: Jake Oettinger #29 (Projected) · Casey DeSmith #1 (Backup)

Montreal Canadiens

Last game: Oct 23

1st line

8:25 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Juraj Slafkovský LW	13:45	2	5	7
91	Oliver Kapanen C	13:26	0	0	0
13	Cole Caufield RW	14:36	6	2	8

15 points this season

85TexierLW

24DanaultC

76BolducRW

2nd line

7:55 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
85	Alexandre Texier LW	11:50	1	2	3
24	Phillip Danault C	15:49	0	3	3
76	Zachary Bolduc RW	11:52	4	2	6

12 points this season

22KreiderLW

15NewhookC

17AndersonRW

3rd line

5:06 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Chris Kreider LW	10:05	1	3	4
15	Alex Newhook C	11:46	1	3	4
17	Josh Anderson RW	10:32	4	2	6

14 points this season

77DachLW

71EvansC

62BeckRW

4th line

5:38 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
77	Kirby Dach LW	9:13	0	2	2
71	Jake Evans C	13:24	2	1	3
62	Owen Beck RW	8:48	0	1	1

6 points this season

45CarrierD

21GuhleD

1st pair

9:58 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
45	Alexandre Carrier D	19:20	1	4	5
21	Kaiden Guhle D	18:35	1	3	4

9 points this season

48HutsonD

8MathesonD

2nd pair

9:17 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
48	Lane Hutson D	18:44	2	7	9
8	Mike Matheson D	17:48	1	1	2

11 points this season

53DobsonD

72XhekajD

3rd pair

5:49 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
53	Noah Dobson D	15:56	0	2	2
72	Arber Xhekaj D	10:00	0	0	0

2 points this season

Power play unit 1

2:38 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
13	Cole Caufield F	14:36	6	2	8
20	Juraj Slafkovský F	13:45	2	5	7
91	Oliver Kapanen F	13:26	0	0	0
48	Lane Hutson D	18:44	2	7	9
53	Noah Dobson D	15:56	0	2	2

26 points this season

Power play unit 2

1:07 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
76	Zachary Bolduc F	11:52	4	2	6
85	Alexandre Texier F	11:50	1	2	3
15	Alex Newhook F	11:46	1	3	4
22	Chris Kreider F	10:05	1	3	4
8	Mike Matheson D	17:48	1	1	2

19 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

3:12 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
24	Phillip Danault F	15:49	0	3	3
71	Jake Evans F	13:24	2	1	3
45	Alexandre Carrier D	19:20	1	4	5
8	Mike Matheson D	17:48	1	1	2

13 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2

1:26 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
15	Alex Newhook F	11:46	1	3	4
17	Josh Anderson F	10:32	4	2	6
21	Kaiden Guhle D	18:35	1	3	4
53	Noah Dobson D	15:56	0	2	2

16 points this season

Goalies: Jacob Fowler #32 (Projected) · Jakub Dobes #75 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (21)

Jake Oettinger · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Casey DeSmith · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Juraj Slafkovský · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Oliver Kapanen · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
Cole Caufield · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Alexandre Texier · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Phillip Danault · Hockeybroad, CC BY-SA 3.0
Zachary Bolduc · Shayypy, CC BY 4.0
Chris Kreider · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Newhook · Maniacduhockey, CC0
Josh Anderson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Kirby Dach · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Jake Evans · All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Owen Beck · Maniacduhockey, CC0
Alexandre Carrier · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Kaiden Guhle · Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0
Lane Hutson · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Mike Matheson · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Noah Dobson · CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0
Arber Xhekaj · Gatarys, CC0
Jakub Dobes · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Jake Oettinger DAL

.939 save percentage

1.23 GAA · 5–2–1 · 3 shutouts · 8 starts

Jacob Fowler MON

.910 save percentage

1.94 GAA · 4–1–0 · 1 shutout · 5 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (1)

Jake Oettinger · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Roope HintzDAL · C · 5 G in 8 GP · 8 GP5531%3.22
Mikko RantanenDAL · RW · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5630%3.34
Cole CaufieldMON · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6625%3.98
Nick SuzukiMON · C · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5522%4.50
Arttu HyryDAL · RW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3322%4.58
Jason RobertsonDAL · LW · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3620%4.94
Miro HeiskanenDAL · D · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3420%5.08
Josh AndersonMON · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4318%5.41
Zachary BolducMON · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4318%5.67
Jake EvansMON · C · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2316%6.09

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (5)

Cole Caufield · All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0
Nick Suzuki · Princesse sabrina, CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Anderson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Zachary Bolduc · Shayypy, CC BY 4.0
Jake Evans · All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Dallas Stars vs Montreal Canadiens?

Dallas Stars are the pick at home against Montreal Canadiens: a 60% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Dallas Stars have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch. Montreal Canadiens have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Dallas Stars sit 6th in the Western Conference, while Montreal Canadiens sit 9th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Dallas Stars rate +0.27 and Montreal Canadiens −0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.34 goals to Dallas Stars. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Dallas Stars 49% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Dallas Stars −1.5 on the puck line (32%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 56% (5.6 projected).

Dallas Stars to win, overtime and shootout included (60%). Projected score: 3–2.