Liiga

KalPa vs Jokerit prediction

KalPa5–7–1 · Home Jokerit3–9–3 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

63%win chance incl. overtime37%

Our pick

63%KAL63%KAL

KalPa to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.60 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with KalPa (63%) at home against Jokerit, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

KALKalPa in 60'

52%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

JOKJokerit in 60'

28%

Game flow

KAL 2.8 · JOK 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 1.4–0.6

P3 · 0.7–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)KalPa63%1.60
Regulation result (60 minutes)KalPa52%1.93
Puck lineJokerit +1.566%1.52
Total goalsOver 4.562%1.62
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

KalPa

63%fair 1.60

Regulation result (60 minutes)

KalPa

52%fair 1.93

Puck line

Jokerit +1.5

66%fair 1.52

Total goals

Over 4.5

62%fair 1.62

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. FortierJOK · 5 G in 15 GP · 15 GP5221%4.72
T. HartikainenKAL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3321%4.81
A. KlemettiKAL · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4121%4.83
K. KapanenKAL · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4121%4.87
A. ForslundJOK · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4419%5.32
J. SaarelainenKAL · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3019%5.39
M. HannikainenJOK · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3118%5.51
J. KononenKAL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3018%5.54
A. MustonenJOK · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2114%7.27
P. VirtaJOK · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2113%7.68

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win KalPa vs Jokerit?

The numbers side with KalPa (63%) at home against Jokerit, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

KalPa have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. Jokerit have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

KalPa sit 14th, while Jokerit sit 16th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, KalPa rate −0.11 and Jokerit −0.43 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.33 goals to KalPa. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives KalPa 52% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: KalPa −1.5 on the puck line (34%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 62% (5.2 projected).

KalPa to win, overtime and shootout included (63%). Projected score: 3–2.