Latvian Hockey League

HC Panter vs Punks Vilnius prediction

HC Panter5–3–1 · Home Punks Vilnius2–6–1 · Away06:00 PMOct 31

73%win chance incl. overtime27%

Our pick

73%PAN73%PAN

HC Panter to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.37 · projected 4–3

HC Panter are the pick at home against Punks Vilnius: a 73% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

After 60 minutes

PANHC Panter in 60'

65%

Tied → OTTied → OT

14%

PUNPunks Vilnius in 60'

21%

Game flow

PAN 4.5 · PUN 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.5–0.6

P2 · 1.7–1.2

P3 · 1.3–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)HC Panter73%1.37
Regulation result (60 minutes)HC Panter65%1.54
Puck lineHC Panter −1.550%1.98
Total goalsUnder 7.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes93%1.07

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

HC Panter

73%fair 1.37

Regulation result (60 minutes)

HC Panter

65%fair 1.54

Puck line

HC Panter −1.5

50%fair 1.98

Total goals

Under 7.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

93%fair 1.07

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. LindePAN · 7 G in 9 GP · 9 GP7744%2.29
E. NevolainenPAN · 5 G in 6 GP · 6 GP5639%2.56
Fedorovits NikitaPAN · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5636%2.74
N. PuzakovPAN · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6336%2.76
E. PotsinokPAN · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3730%3.39
O. KarvinenPUN · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4224%4.23
A. RedkoPUN · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3120%4.92
T. MazulisPUN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2219%5.40
P. VerenisPUN · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2318%5.57
H. MarcinkeviciusPUN · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2117%5.80

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win HC Panter vs Punks Vilnius?

HC Panter are the pick at home against Punks Vilnius: a 73% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

HC Panter have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.8 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Punks Vilnius have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 7.6 goals a game over that stretch.

HC Panter sit 3rd, while Punks Vilnius sit 7th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, HC Panter rate +0.22 and Punks Vilnius −1.25 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 1.48 goals to HC Panter. Home ice is worth about 0.16 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives HC Panter 65% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 14%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: HC Panter −1.5 on the puck line (50%) and 7.5 total goals, with the under at 55% (7.5 projected).

HC Panter to win, overtime and shootout included (73%). Projected score: 4–3.