KHL

Dinamo Minsk vs Tractor Chelyabinsk prediction

Dinamo Minsk7–6–6 · Home Tractor Chelyabinsk7–8–2 · Away07:10 PMOct 30

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%DIN51%DIN

Dinamo Minsk to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.98 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Dinamo Minsk (51%) at home against Tractor Chelyabinsk, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

DINDinamo Minsk in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

TRATractor Chelyabinsk in 60'

39%

Game flow

DIN 2.4 · TRA 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 0.9–0.9

P3 · 0.8–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Dinamo Minsk51%1.98
Regulation result (60 minutes)Dinamo Minsk40%2.52
Puck lineTractor Chelyabinsk +1.576%1.31
Total goalsOver 4.561%1.65
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Dinamo Minsk

51%fair 1.98

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Dinamo Minsk

40%fair 2.52

Puck line

Tractor Chelyabinsk +1.5

76%fair 1.31

Total goals

Over 4.5

61%fair 1.65

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

N. LegareTRA · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6222%4.55
D. SotishviliDIN · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6222%4.60
D. LipskyDIN · 6 G in 19 GP · 19 GP6321%4.66
S. GaliyevDIN · 6 G in 19 GP · 19 GP6121%4.83
M. GrigorenkoTRA · 4 G in 17 GP · 17 GP4419%5.18
A. NizameyevTRA · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4419%5.30
S. KuznetsovDIN · 5 G in 18 GP · 18 GP5218%5.60
N. Aube-KubelDIN · 5 G in 18 GP · 18 GP5117%5.85
I. VydrenkovTRA · 3 G in 17 GP · 17 GP3315%6.78
B. KatchoukTRA · 3 G in 17 GP · 17 GP3214%6.99

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (1)

N. Legare · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who will win Dinamo Minsk vs Tractor Chelyabinsk?

The numbers side with Dinamo Minsk (51%) at home against Tractor Chelyabinsk, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Dinamo Minsk have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Tractor Chelyabinsk have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Dinamo Minsk sit 7th in the Western Conference, while Tractor Chelyabinsk sit 10th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Dinamo Minsk rate −0.17 and Tractor Chelyabinsk −0.07 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.10 goals to Tractor Chelyabinsk. Home ice is worth about 0.13 goals a game in this league.

About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Dinamo Minsk win it in regulation only 40% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 51%.

Our own lines for this game: Dinamo Minsk −1.5 on the puck line (24%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 61% (5.1 projected).

Dinamo Minsk to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.