ICE Hockey League

TWK Innsbruck vs Ferencváros prediction

TWK Innsbruck6–8–0 · Home Ferencváros5–5–1 · Away05:30 PMOct 31

50%win chance incl. overtime50%

Our pick

50%TWK50%TWK

TWK Innsbruck to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.99 · projected 3–2

TWK Innsbruck are the pick at home against Ferencváros: a 50% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

TWKTWK Innsbruck in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

FERFerencváros in 60'

40%

Game flow

TWK 2.9 · FER 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–1.1

P2 · 0.7–0.9

P3 · 0.9–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)TWK Innsbruck50%1.99
Regulation result (60 minutes)TWK Innsbruck40%2.48
Puck lineFerencváros +1.575%1.34
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.98
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

TWK Innsbruck

50%fair 1.99

Regulation result (60 minutes)

TWK Innsbruck

40%fair 2.48

Puck line

Ferencváros +1.5

75%fair 1.34

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.98

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. SavoieFER · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8635%2.84
S. OwreTWK · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7533%3.06
S. BenkerTWK · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5424%4.13
M. WittingTWK · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4222%4.45
D. SilyeFER · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4320%4.91
A. KestilaFER · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4320%5.02
C. MayerTWK · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3419%5.21
B. DavisTWK · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3119%5.22
R. HeljankoFER · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3317%5.74
J. TammelaFER · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3016%6.20

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win TWK Innsbruck vs Ferencváros?

TWK Innsbruck are the pick at home against Ferencváros: a 50% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

TWK Innsbruck have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch. Ferencváros have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch.

TWK Innsbruck sit 13th, while Ferencváros sit 12th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, TWK Innsbruck rate −0.45 and Ferencváros −0.20 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.25 goals to Ferencváros. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives TWK Innsbruck 40% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: TWK Innsbruck −1.5 on the puck line (25%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (5.9 projected).

TWK Innsbruck to win, overtime and shootout included (50%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.