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Adler Mannheim vs Fischtown Pinguins prediction

Adler Mannheim6–3–2 · Home Fischtown Pinguins4–6–0 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

68%win chance incl. overtime32%

Our pick

68%ADL68%ADL

Adler Mannheim to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.48 · projected 3–2

Adler Mannheim are the pick at home against Fischtown Pinguins: a 68% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

ADLAdler Mannheim in 60'

58%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

FISFischtown Pinguins in 60'

24%

Game flow

ADL 3.1 · FIS 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 1.1–0.7

P3 · 1.3–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Adler Mannheim68%1.48
Regulation result (60 minutes)Adler Mannheim58%1.74
Puck lineFischtown Pinguins +1.560%1.67
Total goalsUnder 5.559%1.70
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.19

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Adler Mannheim

68%fair 1.48

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Adler Mannheim

58%fair 1.74

Puck line

Fischtown Pinguins +1.5

60%fair 1.67

Total goals

Under 5.5

59%fair 1.70

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.19

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

P. BruggisserFIS · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5327%3.77
N. MattinenADL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5224%4.20
L. GawankeADL · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3620%5.02
Z. SolowADL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3419%5.32
M. PlachtaADL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3617%5.72
T. KuhnhacklADL · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3217%5.84
N. KinderFIS · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2015%6.64
M. GortzFIS · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2214%6.91
P. TuomieFIS · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2014%7.37
A. HiroseFIS · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2213%7.99

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Adler Mannheim vs Fischtown Pinguins?

Adler Mannheim are the pick at home against Fischtown Pinguins: a 68% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Adler Mannheim have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch. Fischtown Pinguins have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.0 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Adler Mannheim sit 3rd, while Fischtown Pinguins sit 12th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Adler Mannheim rate +0.39 and Fischtown Pinguins −0.33 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.73 goals to Adler Mannheim. Home ice is worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league.

About 18% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Adler Mannheim win it in regulation only 58% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 68%.

Our own lines for this game: Adler Mannheim −1.5 on the puck line (40%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 59% (5.4 projected).

Adler Mannheim to win, overtime and shootout included (68%). Projected score: 3–2.