Czech Extraliga

Karlovy Vary vs Pardubice prediction

Karlovy Vary8–4–0 · Home Pardubice10–2–0 · Away06:00 PMOct 30

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Our pick

51%PAR51%PAR

Pardubice to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.94 · projected 2–3

Pardubice are the pick on the road against Karlovy Vary: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

KARKarlovy Vary in 60'

38%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

PARPardubice in 60'

41%

Game flow

KAR 2.7 · PAR 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.6

P2 · 1.0–1.0

P3 · 0.8–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Pardubice51%1.94
Regulation result (60 minutes)Pardubice41%2.43
Puck lineKarlovy Vary +1.574%1.34
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Pardubice

51%fair 1.94

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Pardubice

41%fair 2.43

Puck line

Karlovy Vary +1.5

74%fair 1.34

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. SmejkalPAR · 8 G in 13 GP · 13 GP8627%3.76
D. StastnyKAR · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4421%4.83
D. TomasekPAR · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5920%4.94
M. StranskyPAR · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6420%5.09
O. BeranekKAR · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3419%5.35
R. CervenkaPAR · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5418%5.54
P. TomekKAR · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3417%5.77
N. JonesKAR · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4317%5.78
J. MandatPAR · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4317%5.82
J. CernochKAR · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3417%5.89

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (3)

D. Tomasek · Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
R. Cervenka · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
J. Mandat · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who will win Karlovy Vary vs Pardubice?

Pardubice are the pick on the road against Karlovy Vary: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Karlovy Vary have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch. Pardubice have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Karlovy Vary sit 3rd, while Pardubice sit 2nd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Karlovy Vary rate +0.26 and Pardubice +0.48 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.23 goals to Pardubice. Home ice is worth about 0.14 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Pardubice 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Karlovy Vary 0, Pardubice 1); the latest finished Pardubice 5–2 Karlovy Vary on 2026-09-20.

Our own lines for this game: Pardubice −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (5.7 projected).

Pardubice to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.