AHL

Rochester Americans vs Lehigh Valley Phantoms prediction

Rochester Americans4–3–1 · Home Lehigh Valley Phantoms3–2–1 · Away07:05 PMOct 30

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%ROC51%ROC

Rochester Americans to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.98 · projected 3–2

Rochester Americans are the pick at home against Lehigh Valley Phantoms: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

ROCRochester Americans in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

LEHLehigh Valley Phantoms in 60'

40%

Game flow

ROC 3.0 · LEH 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 1.1–1.5

P3 · 1.1–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Rochester Americans51%1.98
Regulation result (60 minutes)Rochester Americans41%2.46
Puck lineLehigh Valley Phantoms +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Rochester Americans

51%fair 1.98

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Rochester Americans

41%fair 2.46

Puck line

Lehigh Valley Phantoms +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

M. PecaROC · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4426%3.87
T. KuntarROC · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4425%3.93
A. McDonoughROC · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3323%4.31
J. PolinROC · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3321%4.67
R. Fiddler-SchultzROC · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2116%6.14

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Rochester Americans vs Lehigh Valley Phantoms?

Rochester Americans are the pick at home against Lehigh Valley Phantoms: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Rochester Americans have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Lehigh Valley Phantoms have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Rochester Americans sit 5th in the North Division, while Lehigh Valley Phantoms sit 5th in the Atlantic Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Rochester Americans rate +0.16 and Lehigh Valley Phantoms −0.02 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.17 goals to Rochester Americans. Home ice is worth about -0.14 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Rochester Americans win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 51%.

Our own lines for this game: Rochester Americans −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.1 projected).

Rochester Americans to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.