AHL

Hershey Bears vs Belleville Senators prediction

Hershey Bears4–2–0 · Home Belleville Senators3–2–2 · Away07:00 PMOct 24

47%win chance incl. overtime53%

Our pick

53%BEL53%BEL

Belleville Senators to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.88 · projected 2–3

Belleville Senators are the narrow pick at 53% to beat Hershey Bears, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

HERHershey Bears in 60'

38%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

BELBelleville Senators in 60'

44%

Game flow

HER 3.0 · BEL 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.8

P2 · 0.9–1.1

P3 · 1.2–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Belleville Senators53%1.88
Regulation result (60 minutes)Belleville Senators44%2.29
Puck lineHershey Bears +1.571%1.40
Total goalsUnder 6.552%1.94
Both teams to scoreYes92%1.09

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Belleville Senators

53%fair 1.88

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Belleville Senators

44%fair 2.29

Puck line

Hershey Bears +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 6.5

52%fair 1.94

Both teams to score

Yes

92%fair 1.09

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. HalttunenBEL · 5 G in 6 GP · 6 GP5531%3.20
T. BoucherBEL · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3423%4.34
P. TomasinoBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3522%4.47
S. BlaisBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3222%4.47
R. SuzukiBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3521%4.66

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Hershey Bears vs Belleville Senators?

Belleville Senators are the narrow pick at 53% to beat Hershey Bears, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

The model splits this one almost evenly, giving Belleville Senators a 53% chance that includes overtime and a shootout, and a 3–2 scoreline. That is a lean rather than a conviction, which fits a matchup where the two sides arrive with very different recent records. Hershey Bears have won 4 of their last 5, while Belleville Senators have taken 2 of their last 5.

Form points in opposite directions. Hershey Bears have scored 3.4 and conceded 2.6 per game across that five-game run, a balanced profile. Belleville Senators have been far busier at both ends, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.8, so their games have produced more goals and less control. The table reinforces the gap in standings: Hershey Bears are 1st in the Atlantic Division and Belleville Senators are 5th in the North Division.

Once opponents are accounted for, the picture tilts slightly toward the visitors. Hershey Bears rate +0.04 goals per game against an average team and Belleville Senators +0.11, an edge of 0.07 goals to Belleville Senators. Home ice is worth about -0.13 goals a game in this league, which works against the hosts rather than for them. Inside 60 minutes the model gives Belleville Senators 44% and a 19% chance the game is tied after three periods, with the tie heading to overtime and possibly a shootout.

The projected 3–2 final sits just under our 6.5 total, and the under carries 51% with 6.4 projected goals, so the number is close to the model's own expectation. On the puck line, Belleville Senators −1.5 comes in at 29%, meaning a one-goal margin is the most likely outcome and the cover is the less probable side. With the win probability at 53% including overtime and shootout, the moneyline lean is thin, and the value sits more in the margin than in the outright result.

Belleville Senators to win, overtime and shootout included, at 53%, with a projected 3–2 final.