NHL

Calgary Flames vs Detroit Red Wings prediction

Calgary Flames3–6–0 · Home Detroit Red Wings4–3–3 · Away10:00 PMOct 24

45%win chance incl. overtime55%

Our pick

55%DET55%DET

Detroit Red Wings to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.80 · projected 2–3

Detroit Red Wings are the pick at 55% to beat Calgary Flames, with a projected 3–2 final score.

After 60 minutes

CALCalgary Flames in 60'

34%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

DETDetroit Red Wings in 60'

44%

Game flow

CAL 2.7 · DET 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–1.0

P2 · 1.0–0.8

P3 · 0.8–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Detroit Red Wings55%1.80
Regulation result (60 minutes)Detroit Red Wings44%2.26
Puck lineCalgary Flames +1.571%1.41
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Detroit Red Wings

55%fair 1.80

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Detroit Red Wings

44%fair 2.26

Puck line

Calgary Flames +1.5

71%fair 1.41

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.93

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Calgary Flames

Last game: Oct 22

32WolfProjected

JF86FarabeeLW

18JonesC MC27CoronatoRW

1st line

5:39 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
86	Joel Farabee LW	18:51	1	6	7
18	Ben Jones C	10:45	0	0	0
27	Matt Coronato RW	17:18	2	3	5

12 points this season

RS22StromeLW MP76PospíšilC MG92GridinRW

2nd line

7:07 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
22	Ryan Strome LW	15:19	1	2	3
76	Martin Pospíšil C	15:46	1	1	2
92	Matvei Gridin RW	14:57	1	2	3

8 points this season

AS61SunievLW YS17SharangovichC MF16FrostRW

3rd line

5:05 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
61	Aydar Suniev LW	11:58	3	1	4
17	Yegor Sharangovich C	17:58	2	2	4
16	Morgan Frost RW	13:19	3	2	5

13 points this season

78OthmannLW JC38CastagnaC AK43KlapkaRW

4th line

7:05 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
78	Brennan Othmann LW	12:06	0	0	0
38	Jonathan Castagna C	18:28	0	1	1
43	Adam Klapka RW	11:09	2	1	3

4 points this season

KB7BahlD ŠN71NemecD

1st pair

13:10 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
7	Kevin Bahl D	23:48	1	0	1
71	Šimon Nemec D	21:56	0	2	2

3 points this season

28WhitecloudD JM55MiddletonD

2nd pair

10:49 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Zach Whitecloud D	21:22	0	0	0
55	Jake Middleton D	19:39	1	1	2

2 points this season

ZP19ParekhD YK37KuznetsovD

3rd pair

8:22 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
19	Zayne Parekh D	15:37	0	2	2
37	Yan Kuznetsov D	13:47	0	1	1

3 points this season

JF86FarabeeF MC27CoronatoF MG92GridinF

MF16FrostF ZP19ParekhD

Power play unit 1

4:05 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
86	Joel Farabee F	18:51	1	6	7
27	Matt Coronato F	17:18	2	3	5
92	Matvei Gridin F	14:57	1	2	3
16	Morgan Frost F	13:19	3	2	5
19	Zayne Parekh D	15:37	0	2	2

22 points this season

YS17SharangovichF RS22StromeF AS61SunievF

AK43KlapkaF ŠN71NemecD

Power play unit 2

1:25 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
17	Yegor Sharangovich F	17:58	2	2	4
22	Ryan Strome F	15:19	1	2	3
61	Aydar Suniev F	11:58	3	1	4
43	Adam Klapka F	11:09	2	1	3
71	Šimon Nemec D	21:56	0	2	2

16 points this season

JF86FarabeeF MP76PospíšilF

28WhitecloudD JM55MiddletonD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:56 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
86	Joel Farabee F	18:51	1	6	7
76	Martin Pospíšil F	15:46	1	1	2
28	Zach Whitecloud D	21:22	0	0	0
55	Jake Middleton D	19:39	1	1	2

11 points this season

JC38CastagnaF YS17SharangovichF

KB7BahlD YK37KuznetsovD

Penalty kill unit 2

1:14 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
38	Jonathan Castagna F	18:28	0	1	1
17	Yegor Sharangovich F	17:58	2	2	4
7	Kevin Bahl D	23:48	1	0	1
37	Yan Kuznetsov D	13:47	0	1	1

7 points this season

Goalies: Dustin Wolf #32 (Projected) · Devin Cooley #1 (Backup)

Detroit Red Wings

Last game: Oct 22

36GibsonProjected

LR23RaymondLW DL71LarkinC MB28Brandsegg-NygårdRW

1st line

13:42 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
23	Lucas Raymond LW	17:42	3	5	8
71	Dylan Larkin C	20:09	1	4	5
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård RW	16:25	2	6	8

21 points this season

VA33ArvidssonLW EF58FinnieC AD93DeBrincatRW

2nd line

9:51 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
33	Viktor Arvidsson LW	13:59	4	3	7
58	Emmitt Finnie C	15:00	4	3	7
93	Alex DeBrincat RW	15:15	6	5	11

25 points this season

JC37CompherLW AC18CoppC MR27RasmussenRW

3rd line

9:31 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
37	J.T. Compher LW	13:20	0	1	1
18	Andrew Copp C	15:30	1	1	2
27	Michael Rasmussen RW	14:34	1	2	3

6 points this season

CM34MazurLW ND29DanielsonC KK55KolesarRW

4th line

7:36 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	A	P
34	Carter Mazur LW	10:49	1	1
29	Nate Danielson C	10:15	2	2
55	Keegan Kolesar RW	13:09	0	0

3 points this season

MS53SeiderD BC8ChiarotD

1st pair

15:20 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
8	Ben Chiarot D	22:30	0	1	1

6 points this season

AJ20JohanssonD

AJ42JohanssonD

2nd pair

12:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Albert Johansson D	19:44	1	4	5
42	Anton Johansson D	17:48	–	–	–

JF72FaulkD WW54WallinderD

3rd pair

11:42 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
72	Justin Faulk D	20:21	2	2	4
54	William Wallinder D	13:34	2	1	3

7 points this season

DL71LarkinF LR23RaymondF AD93DeBrincatF

VA33ArvidssonF MS53SeiderD

Power play unit 1

1:41 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Dylan Larkin F	20:09	1	4	5
23	Lucas Raymond F	17:42	3	5	8
93	Alex DeBrincat F	15:15	6	5	11
33	Viktor Arvidsson F	13:59	4	3	7
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5

36 points this season

MB28Brandsegg-NygårdF AC18CoppF EF58FinnieF

MR27RasmussenF JF72FaulkD

Power play unit 2

0:44 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
28	Michael Brandsegg-Nygård F	16:25	2	6	8
18	Andrew Copp F	15:30	1	1	2
58	Emmitt Finnie F	15:00	4	3	7
27	Michael Rasmussen F	14:34	1	2	3
72	Justin Faulk D	20:21	2	2	4

24 points this season

DL71LarkinF EF58FinnieF

MS53SeiderD BC8ChiarotD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:16 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
71	Dylan Larkin F	20:09	1	4	5
58	Emmitt Finnie F	15:00	4	3	7
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
8	Ben Chiarot D	22:30	0	1	1

18 points this season

MR27RasmussenF KK55KolesarF

MS53SeiderD AJ20JohanssonD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:59 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
27	Michael Rasmussen F	14:34	1	2	3
55	Keegan Kolesar F	13:09	0	0	0
53	Moritz Seider D	23:23	0	5	5
20	Albert Johansson D	19:44	1	4	5

13 points this season

Goalies: John Gibson #36 (Projected) · Michal Postava #35 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (6)

Ben Jones · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Brennan Othmann · JTB65, CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Whitecloud · Lakeland PBS, CC BY 3.0
Devin Cooley · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Dustin Wolf · MTG1989, CC BY-SA 4.0
John Gibson · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Dustin Wolf CAL

.834 save percentage

4.85 GAA · 1–4–0 · 5 starts

John Gibson DET

.871 save percentage

3.35 GAA · 3–3–1 · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Dustin Wolf · MTG1989, CC BY-SA 4.0
John Gibson · mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Alex DeBrincatDET · RW · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6632%3.08
Emmitt FinnieDET · C · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4625%3.96
Aydar SunievCAL · LW · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3425%4.03
Viktor ArvidssonDET · LW · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4324%4.21
Lucas RaymondDET · LW · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3523%4.37
Morgan FrostCAL · C · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3422%4.49
Yegor SharangovichCAL · C · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2218%5.68
William WallinderDET · D · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2117%5.88
Matt CoronatoCAL · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2417%5.95
Adam KlapkaCAL · RW · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2217%5.98

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Calgary Flames vs Detroit Red Wings?

Detroit Red Wings are the pick at 55% to beat Calgary Flames, with a projected 3–2 final score.

Detroit Red Wings carry the lean on the road, and the ratings explain why: adjusted for opponents faced, Detroit Red Wings rate −0.04 goals per game against an average team while Calgary Flames sit at −0.59, an edge of 0.55 goals to the visitors. Home ice gives some of that back, worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league, but it does not close the gap. The model puts Detroit Red Wings at 55% including overtime and the shootout, with 3–2 the most likely scoreline.

Both teams have won 3 of their last 5, so form does not separate them. The difference is in how they got there: Detroit Red Wings have scored 3.6 and allowed 3.0 goals a game over that stretch, while Calgary Flames have scored 2.6 and allowed 3.0. The table points the same way, with Detroit Red Wings 10th in the Eastern Conference and Calgary Flames 15th in the Western Conference.

The market is not far from the model. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, the moneyline across 2 bookmakers prices Detroit Red Wings at 56%, within a point of our 55%. About 22% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Detroit Red Wings win it in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 55%.

This is close to a coin flip, so the lean toward Detroit Red Wings deserves care rather than confidence. The case for Calgary Flames rests on home ice and a recent run of wins, but the adjusted goal differential and the conference standings both favour the visitor. The two inputs that matter most, the ratings edge and the market price, sit on the same side.

With a projected score of 3–2, Detroit Red Wings −1.5 on the puck line is a long shot at 29%, since a one-goal win would not cover it. The 5.5 total goals line is the tighter call: the over is priced at 52% with 6 projected goals, so the numbers lean slightly above the line. Neither price is a strong edge, which fits a game the model treats as close to even.

Detroit Red Wings to win, overtime and shootout included, at 55%, with a projected score of 3–2.