Metal Ligaen

Herlev vs Herning Blue Fox prediction

Herlev6–8–1 · Home Herning Blue Fox12–0–1 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

34%win chance incl. overtime66%

Our pick

66%HER66%HER

Herning Blue Fox to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.52 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Herning Blue Fox 66% favourites on the road against Herlev, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

HERHerlev in 60'

26%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

HERHerning Blue Fox in 60'

56%

Game flow

HER 2.4 · HER 3.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–1.0

P2 · 0.8–1.0

P3 · 0.7–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Herning Blue Fox66%1.52
Regulation result (60 minutes)Herning Blue Fox56%1.78
Puck lineHerlev +1.561%1.65
Total goalsOver 5.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Herning Blue Fox

66%fair 1.52

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Herning Blue Fox

56%fair 1.78

Puck line

Herlev +1.5

61%fair 1.65

Total goals

Over 5.5

50%fair 1.99

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

O. KiljunenHER · 11 G in 13 GP · 13 GP11434%2.91
K. O'NeilHER · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7627%3.69
M. PoulsenHER · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7527%3.73
A. LindeHER · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7227%3.77
V. CubarsHER · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7925%3.97
I. JonssonHER · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5420%4.88
J. JonssonHER · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6520%5.02
I. GoranssonHER · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5219%5.25
T. AmorosaHER · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4518%5.68
M. AsperupHER · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4617%5.74

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Herlev vs Herning Blue Fox?

Our model makes Herning Blue Fox 66% favourites on the road against Herlev, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Herlev have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Herning Blue Fox have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 1.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Herlev sit 5th, while Herning Blue Fox sit 1st.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Herlev rate −0.10 and Herning Blue Fox +1.04 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 1.14 goals to Herning Blue Fox. Home ice is worth about 0.18 goals a game in this league.

About 18% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Herning Blue Fox win it in regulation only 56% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 66%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Herlev 0, Herning Blue Fox 1); the latest finished Herning Blue Fox 6–4 Herlev on 2026-09-29.

Our own lines for this game: Herning Blue Fox −1.5 on the puck line (39%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 50% (5.9 projected).

Herning Blue Fox to win, overtime and shootout included (66%). Projected score: 3–2.