Metal Ligaen

SønderjyskE vs Frederikshavn prediction

SønderjyskE6–7–0 · Home Frederikshavn10–3–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 30

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Our pick

51%FRE51%FRE

Frederikshavn to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.95 · projected 2–3

Frederikshavn are the pick on the road against SønderjyskE: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

SØNSønderjyskE in 60'

39%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

FREFrederikshavn in 60'

42%

Game flow

SØN 2.9 · FRE 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.0

P2 · 1.1–0.7

P3 · 1.2–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Frederikshavn51%1.95
Regulation result (60 minutes)Frederikshavn42%2.39
Puck lineSønderjyskE +1.573%1.36
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Frederikshavn

51%fair 1.95

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Frederikshavn

42%fair 2.39

Puck line

SønderjyskE +1.5

73%fair 1.36

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. MogensenSØN · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7733%3.05
A. SchioldanFRE · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7328%3.59
A. HalmeFRE · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7427%3.76
C. FrederiksenFRE · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5525%3.95
R. VitolinsSØN · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5425%3.96
E. FlorchukSØN · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5624%4.15
M. AlmquistSØN · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4423%4.36
A. KarppinenFRE · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6022%4.49
M. CarlsenSØN · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4421%4.79
M. SkovFRE · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4320%4.89

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win SønderjyskE vs Frederikshavn?

Frederikshavn are the pick on the road against SønderjyskE: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

SønderjyskE have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Frederikshavn have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch.

SønderjyskE sit 4th, while Frederikshavn sit 2nd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, SønderjyskE rate −0.14 and Frederikshavn +0.12 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.26 goals to Frederikshavn. Home ice is worth about 0.18 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Frederikshavn 42% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (SønderjyskE 0, Frederikshavn 1); the latest finished Frederikshavn 7–3 SønderjyskE on 2026-08-30.

Our own lines for this game: Frederikshavn −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.1 projected).

Frederikshavn to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.