Metal Ligaen

Esbjerg vs Aalborg prediction

Esbjerg7–5–2 · Home Aalborg6–7–0 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%ESB57%ESB

Esbjerg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.75 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Esbjerg (57%) at home against Aalborg, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

ESBEsbjerg in 60'

47%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

AALAalborg in 60'

34%

Game flow

ESB 3.1 · AAL 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.2

P2 · 0.7–1.0

P3 · 1.5–0.5

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Esbjerg57%1.75
Regulation result (60 minutes)Esbjerg47%2.11
Puck lineAalborg +1.569%1.46
Total goalsOver 5.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Esbjerg

57%fair 1.75

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Esbjerg

47%fair 2.11

Puck line

Aalborg +1.5

69%fair 1.46

Total goals

Over 5.5

50%fair 1.99

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. LajeunesseESB · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8632%3.16
N. WerbikESB · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6426%3.91
A. KuldaESB · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5423%4.26
Z. FranklinESB · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5623%4.42
G. DowningESB · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4222%4.56
J. JakobsenAAL · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3321%4.88
A. GrundtvigAAL · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4220%5.06
J. KorsgaardAAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4119%5.18
A. LindelofAAL · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3418%5.43
T. WelshAAL · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2317%5.75

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Esbjerg vs Aalborg?

The numbers side with Esbjerg (57%) at home against Aalborg, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Esbjerg have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch. Aalborg have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.6 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Esbjerg sit 3rd, while Aalborg sit 7th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Esbjerg rate +0.05 and Aalborg −0.21 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.25 goals to Esbjerg. Home ice is worth about 0.18 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Esbjerg 47% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Esbjerg 1, Aalborg 0); the latest finished Aalborg 0–3 Esbjerg on 2026-09-25.

Our own lines for this game: Esbjerg −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 50% (5.9 projected).

Esbjerg to win, overtime and shootout included (57%). Projected score: 3–2.